Sheppard Afb, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

735
FXUS64 KOUN 161748
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, the
   strongest of which will have gusty winds up to 60 mph.
- More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and
   Thursday with cooling temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms, along with
continued above-average warmth, remains the main weather story
today. The persistent omega block pattern from prior days will
begin to break down, leaving behind weak/nebulous upper flow
overhead. Over the coming hours (~1-3 PM), the combination of deep
vertical mixing and sufficient boundary layer moisture will
promote the development of widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area. This will include potential for a
few strong-to-severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for wind
gusts up to 60 mph, along with potential for small hail and
locally heavy rainfall.
Most locations will remain storm-free today, with mostly clear
skies, a light south-southeast breeze and warm temperatures (upper-
80s/low-90s).
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Higher confidence/coverage of precipitation arrives towards daybreak
Wednesday morning and will continue into the late week. A weak upper
low will begin to meander eastward across the Northern/Central
Plains during the period. An initial bout of showers and
thunderstorms will spread across northern Oklahoma on Wednesday
morning tied to the approach of a weak (possibly convectively
enhanced) surface front. Depending on how much airmass recovery
occurs in vicinity of his feature into the afternoon, another
round of (scattered) strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be
possible into Wednesday evening. Daytime temperatures across
northern Oklahoma will be heavily influenced by early day
rain/clouds, and look to be the locally "coolest" (low-80s).
Otherwise, upper-80s to low-90s will continue across the southern
two-thirds of the area.
The base of the weak upper trough will move closer by Thursday, when
another round of showers and thunderstorms is currently anticipated.
The corresponding surface pattern may become somewhat complex by
this time, with potential for multiple weak fronts and/or convective
outflows. With a slightly more enhanced wind field (and resultant
deep-layer shear magnitudes), a bout of more organized (severe)
thunderstorms appears possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. Right now, this potential would be favored along and north
of the I-40 corridor. Rather significant spatiotemporal
uncertainty remains regarding this risk, so those with outdoor
interests on Thursday are advertised to check back over coming
forecast updates.
Temperatures will continue to run cooler (especially north) on
Thursday, with potential for more widespread rain/clouds
throughout the day. A lucky few across northwestern Oklahoma may
remain in the 70s pending evolution of above discussed features.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The troughing regime will lift back northward on Friday as the
subtropical ridge begins to redevelop across the Rio Grande Valley.
Given the likelihood that a boundary remains in our area from the
previous day`s storms, we will maintain at least a chance of more
rain, especially in the southern and eastern portions of the area.
Upper-level flow turns more zonal on Saturday ahead of another
trough/jet max moving into the Great Plains on Sunday.
Predictability starts to decrease in this period, but the pattern
will favor more chances for at least scattered rain and storms along
with near-normal temperatures through the weekend.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Afternoon heating will result in further Cu development as well
as isolated showers/storms. Cloud bases will be in the VFR
category, but a storm or two may certainly lower visibility below
4 miles or so. With only isolated storms expected, will not
mention in TAFs.  Otherwise, the Cu and precipitation will end by
1-2Z. A southerly wind will prevail at mainly light speeds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  68  86 /  20  20  20  50
Hobart OK         67  92  67  89 /  20  10  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  69  94  70  91 /  20  10  10  20
Gage OK           64  85  61  79 /  20  40  70  50
Ponca City OK     66  89  66  84 /  20  40  50  60
Durant OK         69  94  69  91 /  20  10  10  30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion