Shepherd, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

870
FXUS63 KGRR 011123
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
723 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and above average temps continue through the weekend
- Rain chances increase early next week with cooler temps on the way
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and above average temps continue through the weekend
No change in the forecast of dry conditions expected through Sunday.
This pattern, which has been expected for over a week now continues
to progress as expected. The upper ridge axis remains just west of
the area this morning, so we continue to see strong subsidence and
sinking being just downstream of the ridge. The ridge axis moves
east of the area tonight and flattens a bit as upper troughing well
up in Canada moves east across Ontario.
The ridge will be reinforced a bit by another long wave trough aloft
that will move toward the Four Corners region by Saturday. This is
what will extend our dry period through the weekend.
Temperatures, as advertised for many days now, will drop a bit today
as compared to the past few days that were around 80F. This is due
to the low level flow from the NE tapping some of the cooler air
aloft from Eastern Canada. Even with the drop in temps today into
the mid 70s, that still remains above the average of the 60s for
early October.
Temperatures will then gradually warm through the weekend once again
as the low level flow starts to develop a southerly component. This
will push the cooler air north, and bring warmer air aloft back over
the area. Temperatures will approach record levels mainly in the mid
80s F Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with 850 mb temps in the mid
teens C and good mixing conditions. See the climate section below
for more info.
- Rain chances increase early next week with cooler temps on the way
We will see a cold front slowly sink SE into the area on Monday as
the upper trough out west finally comes close enough. The cold front
initially looks to be dry, with only diurnal convection out over the
Plains that dries up overnight Sunday night. This is because the
inflow ahead of the front is coming in from the SE, downsloping off
of the Appalachians.
The front sinks through most of the area, slowing down over the SE
portion of the state Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions become
more favorable for rain by Tuesday, as a northern stream trough
comes in, and induces a sfc low to travel from SW to NE along the
front. This process will also draw Gulf moisture northward, and help
to saturate the atmosphere more efficiently to produce better rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The stratus that was thought to happen has not materialized this
morning, likely due to too much wind mixing up the atmosphere. The
lack of stratus will allow for VFR conditions to dominate today.
We are expecting only high clouds around 25k ft to affect the area
today.
Winds remain from the ENE, and will not vary by much through 12z
Thu. Speeds will range from around 4-10 knots, with a variation of
wind direction by about 30-50 degrees.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
It is looking likely that we will stay headline free for the
nearshore waters through much of Saturday. Winds will be running 10
to 20 knots much of the time through then. However with an offshore
component, the highest of the winds and waves will be out over the
open waters.
The flow will increase later Saturday into Sunday as we see high
pressure move away, and the next frontal system approaches the area.
These winds will be from the SW, and are more likely to produce SCA
conditions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Here are the record highs for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for some
of our official climate sites. These records will be in jeopardy of
being broken with the warm weather expected those days.
                   Fri              Sat                  Sun
Grand Rapids    86 - 2023       87 - 1951          85 - 1946, 1922
Lansing         90 - 1898       86 - 1951, 1900    87 - 1922, 1900
Muskegon        85 - 2023       84 - 2023          83 - 2007
Kalamazoo       88 - 1953       90 - 1951          87 - 1922
Battle Creek    88 - 1953       87 - 1951          89 - 1900
Holland         86 - 1919       89 - 1951          85 - 2007
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
CLIMATE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion