Shep, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

148
FXUS64 KSJT 240435
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1135 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms late this
  afternoon into Wednesday. A few of these storms could be strong
  to severe this afternoon and evening.
- Heavy rainfall on Wednesday morning could result in areas localized
  flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As of 3 PM the frontal boundary was draped just to the northwest
of the Big Country. Temperatures ahead of the boundary were in the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees. CAMs continue to show isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the front by
the late afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a few storms
becoming strong to severe given moderate instability and modest
deep layer shear. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop overnight as large scale ascent overspreads
the region. The severe threat will be lower compared to the
afternoon round, but marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will
also be possible with the heavier storms overnight. Scattered
showers and storms will linger into the afternoon hours, with the
highest PoPs shifting to the southern half of the area. Otherwise,
temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday (70s and 80s) given
the extensive cloud cover in place and shower and storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday
will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening. Some
residual lift is expected from the last of a mid-level impulse
passing through the region.  As a result, a few lingering showers
could still occur overnight from the Concho Valley southward, but
rainfall amounts should be fairly light.
For Thursday and Friday, quieter weather is in store as surface high
pressure will fill in behind the front. A cooler airmass, to the
tune of 15-18 deg C at 850mb, should overspread the region both
days.  This should translate to high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s which is near normal for this time of year.  By late
Friday, the surface high will shift eastward and allow southerly
return flow to set up for this weekend and temperatures will return
to the low 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Models are in general
agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern California on
Saturday. However, models diverge significantly from run to run on
how to evolve this feature for early next week. The most recent runs
show this upper low becoming an open wave over the Desert Southwest
on Monday and having little to no effect on west central Texas.
Earlier runs show the low holding together and and perhaps bringing
some more rain chances to the region.  For now, the forecast for
Saturday through Monday was kept dry with temperatures near normal
as the region will be under an upper-level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop late tonight
and Wednesday across much of the area and have thunder at all of
the terminals for several hours. Will watch radar trends for
possible amendments probably after 10Z. Otherwise, widespread
MVFR/local IFR ceilings will develop at the terminals during the
morning hours and continue through much of the afternoon. Ceilings
will rise to low end VFR after 25/00Z. Also, a cold front moves
through and winds become north with a few gusts to 20 knots
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  83  61  85 /  80  70   0   0
San Angelo  67  79  59  84 /  50  70  20   0
Junction    70  84  62  87 /  20  70  40  10
Brownwood   69  81  61  85 /  60  80  10   0
Sweetwater  66  83  61  85 /  80  70   0   0
Ozona       69  81  61  85 /  20  70  30  10
Brady       70  79  61  83 /  40  80  20   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion