Shell River, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

164
FXUS63 KFGF 200749
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another quarter to half inch of rain across northeast North
  Dakota through Sunday morning as showers persist.
- Showers across northwest Minnesota through Sunday with
  another tenth to quarter inch expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...Synopsis...
A messy CONUS pattern continues with multiple shortwaves apparent in
water vapor imagery. the recent driver of our weather a wave now
centered over Iowa continues to drift southeast amid weak northwest
flow with another wave on its heels in southern Saskatchewan with an
inverted trough between the two driving our lingering shower
activity through the next two days. Subtle western ridging looks to
build east over the rockies though westerly/northwest flow will
remain across the northern plains through early next week with good
cluster agreement on this evolution. Past Monday clusters then
diverge on the subsequent shortwave progged to move into the plains
with some taking it as far north as SD/southern MN and others
through KS/NE. Overall this seems to have little bearing on any
impacts with the worst case appearing to be some light rain in the
mid week rather than predominant riding. Overall a quieter period
once this weekend wetness ceases.
Weekend Rain....
While not particularly impressive in any aspect showers continue
Saturday in eastern North Dakota and migrate east along the inverted
trough stemming from the shortwave moving to the southeast in Iowa.
A sfc low is also noted along this deformation zone which will help
to focus showers with lapse rates today exceeding 7.0C/km at times
in northwest Minnesota leading to some scattered thunder as a few
hundred MUCAPE near the the low develops in the afternoon with peak
heating. Should more cloud cover exist MUCAPE would be slight more
limited but likely still greater than zero and simply reduce the
areal extent of any thunder activity. Looking a an 80% chance for >
0.25" in northeast ND through Saturday night with a 50% for those
same amounts in northwest MN through Sunday. There is a greater than
60% chance for all areas of more than 0.10 with most having a 80%
chance or greater. So to spell it out simply rain continues for all
with most seeing 0.10 and pockets of 0.25" or greater in Minnesota.
Looking forward to next week drier conditions do prevail with
slightly above average temps. Average highs next week are in the mid
to upper 60s and average lows in the lower 40s. Looking to be about
10 degrees warmer on both ends with mid level riding for the first
half of the week followed by thermal ridging for the latter half as
flow becomes more progressive and zonal beyond Wednesday. Less than a
10% chance for a wetting rain (0.10" or more) on any given day after
this weekend meaning below average precip for the week and slightly
above average temps will be the norm for this week. I`m sure farmers
wont mind these this for a productive week as harvest begins to hit
full speed in the Red River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Low level moisture continues to remain in place as the slow
moving upper low persists, with scattered showers slowly
decreasing in coverage (better coverage lingering in northeast
ND early in the TAF period). Outside of a few localized "holes"
within the IFR stratus resulting in short periods of improvement,
IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the Saturday
morning hours with a period of LIFR ceilings and potential light
fog development (1-3sm) after 06Z through 14Z. Eventually
ceilings and visibility begin to improve Saturday
afternoon/early evening, however this is the type of pattern
that guidance often overestimates the duration/coverage of
improving ceilings and I wouldn`t be surprised to see MVFR
continue to prevail at most sites. The best chance for VFR
ceilings would be towards central ND (possibly KDVL).
Winds remain light and variable as weak surface gradient and
low pressure slowly shifts east through the TAF period
(eventually prevailing from the northwest).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion