Sharp, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

044
FXUS64 KLCH 271121
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
621 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clear skies and slightly cooler, drier air will continue through
  the weekend.
- No precipitation is expected over the next seven days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Wx map currently has broad surface high pressure with a much
stronger subsidence layer at 750mb aloft. Needless to say, this
regime has allowed for partly cloudy conditions during day with low
afternoon RH. Meanwhile, a shortwave has slowed east of the
Mississippi which has helped keep a tighter upper level gradient.
This feature will be slow to move due to an active pattern offshore
the SECONUS. Conditions, today and Sunday will remain dry. Worth
noting, afternoon Min RH has been lowered from previous forecast
to account for efficient surface evaporation not best captured by
blended guidance. High temperatures will be close to 90F for most
locations with light north winds. Lows will trend in the low to
mid 60`s, with upper 60`s likely near the coast.
The aforementioned upper level pressure gradient begins to slack by
Monday helping strengthen the surface high. This will continue
our dry streak early in the work week ahead. Highs will still keep
close to 90F while north winds gain more variable components.
Evening lows will begin to trend a few degrees warmer as the
nocturnal MBL radiates heat inland along with slight subsidence
warming in the low levels given the high pressure strengthening.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
By Tuesday, troughing along the eastern Seaboard begins to
retrograde east and deepen to a dry closed upper level low near the
TN Valley as subtropical ridging remains above us, locally. At
the same time, another more progressive upper level low will
deepen south along the Texas hill country. Given the relatively
dry airmass and continued light northerly advection, confidence
sides on conditions remaining dry across the area. Hereafter, the
pattern aloft becomes more convoluted with multiple attempts to
deepen troughing along the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the very
least, this evolution keeps SETX / SWLA favored to remain dry
through next Thursday. However, depending how the upper level
pattern evolves late in the week moisture does begin to approach
the area by the end of the forecast period. At this time, there is
too much uncertainty to call for isolated chances, but it is a
sign PoPs may come back into the forecast first week of October.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Light offshore flow between 5 and 10 knots will prevail over the
next seven days yielding low seas of 1-2 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Dry conditions and light winds will prevail over the
next seven days. The lack of rainfall may further deteriorate areas
that continue to experience abnormally dry conditions. Minimum RH
values each afternoon will be in the 30-45% range through
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  87  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  88  65  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion