Seney, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

126
FXUS63 KMQT 011742
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
142 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and low impact weather continues through the work week.
- Unseasonable warmth returns this weekend with daytime highs
  15-20 degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Early this morning model analysis showed an upper level high
pressure centered over Illinois with ridging extending into northern
Manitoba and Ontario. Weak elevated instability and moisture moving
along the west side of the ridge was bringing high clouds into the
U.P. Temperatures were mainly in the 50s though areas along Lake
Superior in the western U.P up through the Keweenaw were as
warm as the low 60s with downslope southeasterly winds keeping
the atmosphere mixed. It was also in the low 60s right along the
Lake Michigan shoreline due to onshore flow off the relatively
warm waters.
Today will be another day of above normal temperatures (5 to 10
degrees above average) with high level clouds passing overhead
through the day. The NBM has highs in the mid 60s east to the
low 70s west. Yesterday high temperatures overachieved from the
guidance by several degrees but clouds should help keep things a
bit more in check today and the cooler guidance seems
reasonable.
Unseasonable warmth with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal
for early October returns again during the late week into this
weekend, mirroring a similar stretch of warm October weather
seen in 2023. Then, several daily record highs were set and we
could make another run at them. As the ridge axis shifts into
the eastern seaboard Thursday, deep troughing makes landfall on
the US west coast thus opening the flood gates for warm
southerly return flow into the central Plains and Upper Great
Lakes. NAEFS analysis suggests 850 mb temps near 15-17C this
weekend is in the upper echelon of climatology for this time of
year (near the percentile). This translates to high temps
pushing the upper 70s and low to mid 80s the entire weekend.
Alongside the unseasonable warmth, showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday night into the
weekend, however, NBM PoPs have trended down from previous runs
as models have shifted the frontal boundary (and precipitation)
further north. Should we remain precip free, breezy southerly
winds coinciding unseasonable warmth may bring limited to
elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure maintains VFR conditions across Upper Michigan through
the period. SE winds around 10 kt will shift more southerly at 5-10
kt tonight into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Breezy E to ENE 15-25 kt winds, mainly across the western arm of
Lake Superior, persist this afternoon before briefly falling below
20 kts lake wide this evening while veering to the SE. Breezy
southerly flow is expected to linger through much of the late week
and into the coming weekend with the central and eastern lake
routinely receiving 25 kts gusts through the period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion