Savannah, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

323
FXUS63 KEAX 221726
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning.
- Severe storms possible this evening across northwestern
  Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.
  Strong storms over eastern Kansas and western Missouri tonight
  with gusty winds the main threat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
This morning, the upper level shortwave that brought showers and
thunderstorms to the area yesterday is sliding east into the Ohio
River Valley. That will leave the local area in between the
departing system and a upper level trough which will dig from the
northern Rockies into the central Rockies. Late this afternoon/
evening a lead shortwave is expected to move into northwestern
Missouri. This will allow storms to move into the area with a
moderately unstable environment with 1500-2000J/Kg of MLCAPE
available, as well as 30-40kts of 0-6km shear. Consequently, there
will be the potential for severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds over northwest Missouri west of I-35. This initial
shortwave looks to weaken as it moves eastward into the forecast
area allowing this first round of storms to weaken. A second round
of storms is expected over night tonight as the upper level trough
moves from the central Rockies into the western High Plains. This
will force a cold front into the area. Instability across the area
will not be as strong, but MUCAPE values between 1000-1500J/Kg may
be adequate enough for some gusty winds with storms along the front.
Tuesday morning the cold front will continue to sag through the CWA
continuing thunderstorm chances while late Tuesday into Tuesday
night a elongated trough extending from the Great Lakes into the
central Plains will continue shower and thunderstorm chances.
Wednesday, the upper level trough will move into the local area as
slows as a closed upper low develops in the base of the trough right
over the local area which will continue shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances Wednesday into Wednesday night. Thursday the
upper level trough again becomes an open wave and shifts east of the
area. This should make for mainly dry conditions across the forecast
area along a few showers may be possible over the eastern CWA. Highs
today will be in the low to mid 80s but will fall into the low to
mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday behind the cold front and with
unsettled weather.
For the extended period Friday through Sunday, conditions look
seasonably warm and dry. This will occur due to an omega blocking
pattern developing over the CONUS. The upper level trough that
swings east of the area on Thursday develops another cutoff low in
the base of the trough over the southeastern CONUS while another
cutoff low exist over California. In between these features, the
local area will reside under an area of upper level ridging. This
will keep conditions dry with a slight warming trend. Highs Friday
will be in the mid 70s to near 80 but will rise into the low to mid
80s by Sunday which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late
September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog and low clouds have burned of/lifted at all sites, with the
exception of IXD, which should occur within the next 1-2 hours
based on satellite trends. That will leave VFR conditions for
all sites through the rest of the afternoon and likely most of
the overnight. Tomorrow morning, an area of showers and storms
is likely to move into eastern KS and western MO. MVFR ceilings
and visibility are likely with as this precipitation moves into
the area. Could also see periods of IFR conditions but given
some uncertainty with timing and potential intensity, will stick
with prevailing MVFR for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion