Sardis, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS64 KMEG 291113
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
613 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into next
  weekend.
- Afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90
  degrees, cooling by a couple degrees by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The Mid-South continues to remain underneath a weak ridge with
upper troughing to our east, which is expected to last through
Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to continue rising into
the mid to upper 80s. Surface moisture is also low as dew points
have struggled to reach above 65 F and will continue to mix down
over the next couple days. Low moisture and no forcing will keep
the region dry through the at least Tuesday.
Two tropical systems (Imelda/Humberto) will influence the
troughing over the eastern CONUS through Wednesday, allowing for
a continuation of 925-850 easterly flow. A tongue of increased
moisture is being depicted in most guidance that will be advected
westward into the region Wednesday within this regime. However,
the overlying upper pattern will still be hostile to precipitation
with a strong mid-level inversion and high dew point depressions
near the surface. Regardless, NBM PoPs have increased to near
mentionable (15%), leaving room for isolated diurnal showers
through Wednesday afternoon along and west of the Mississippi
River.
Lower dewpoints will advect in Thursday, significantly impeding
precipitation chances through the end of the period. This notion
is compounded by a central CONUS ridge amplifying into next
weekend, which will further warm mid level temperatures,
suppressing any diurnal convection. A surface high will slide
south out of Canada and over the northeast behind Imelda/Humberto
later in the week as well. So, while upper heights will be rising,
surface temperature increases may be moderated by westward moving
cold fronts as cool air wraps around the southern Appalachians.
This will keep afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s
instead of in the upper 80s and low 90s. Ensembles are in good
agreement on keeping this pattern through the end of the period,
starting Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will remain across the airspace as high pressure
prevails. Northeast winds will remain sub 10 kts over the next 30
hours or so.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Fire weather concerns remain low as moisture is still high enough
to keep minimum relative humidity values around 40% areawide
through at least Wednesday. 20 ft winds will also be light at
5-10 knots from the north/northeast. Wetting rain chances remain
low at this time through the entire forecast period. So, fuels
will begin drying again for the foreseeable future.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion