San Augustine, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS64 KSHV 030457
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Good CU field with towers continue to lift with the axis of
   best moisture working into S AR and NE LA now. Afternoon
   showers and thunderstorms look even better than earlier.
- Little change from where we have been with dry weather into the
   weekend and still chances returning across our Parishes by
   Sunday.
- A stronger cold front will usher in a bit more coverage of
   convection from the NW as the front moves through with high
   pressure from Canada bringing at and below average readings to
   end the long term picture.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Some lower 90s obs already called for bumping a couple of our
larger metro sites to mid 90s for this mid afternoon. Perhaps
even a little hotter than lately with better moisture moving in
and even a little compressional heating. This push is a dry lobe
moving across MS as the air mass builds on the mid Atlantic in the
wake of the cyclones. Some drier 50 degree dew points are now
mixing into the delta region of S AR and NE LA right now. The SPC
has a General Risk for this activity into this evening. So this
explains the push seen in the visible satellite imagery from
Alexandria up to near El Dorado. This axis of moisture will move
westward across I-49 and into E TX by this evening. Much if not
all of the convection will fade soon after the loss of heating.
Sunset is now falling through early evening 6o`clock hour with the
time change now exactly a month away.
Overall, the pattern will continue below average on rainfall for
us, but after several more days near to around 90, some low to mid
80s are on the horizon for next Thursday. A much larger area of
high pressure at better than 1030 mb will drop out of Canada early
next week and arrive in our neck of the woods by midweek. Our
winds will continue easterly for the weekend, but backing a bit
more each day to NE for much of next week. The cooler and drier
air will mix down the MS River Valley and take us back to where we
should be for early October. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Isolated showers have finally dissipated in the vicinity of the
LFK terminal late this evening with just some remaining cu across
portions of Deep East Texas. Other than some AC across N LA, no
other cloud cover to speak of this evening and that should be the
case as we go through the remainder of the night towards sunrise.
Drier air should continue to backdoor into our region from the
east today and thus, any diurnally driven cu field should be
confined to our NE TX terminals and perhaps the TXK and SHV
terminal. Should not see the pops coverage on Friday that we saw
on Thursday and if we see any, it would be mainly near the LFK
terminal but pop forecast does not warrant a weather mention in
the LFK terminal for Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail across all terminal through the 24hr TAF period.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  90  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  65  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  88  58  86 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  65  90  62  88 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  62  87  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  67  89  62  88 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  65  89  61  87 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  67  90  63  89 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion