San Angelo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS64 KSJT 211706
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1206 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a
  slight risk for severe storms along and north of I-20.
- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be
  cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Hot and fairly humid air over the region with dew points into the
upper 60s throughout the CWA. CAMs continue to indicate shortwave
moving through the WNW flow aloft with storms popping up in the
21-22Z time frame, mainly north of I-20. SPC has upgraded this
area to a slight risk and this looks reasonable with plenty of
shear and modest instability. There is some warm air aloft, but
looking at forecast soundings, the warming combined with the high
dew points will overcome this, at least over areas mentioned.
Skies will clear tonight and winds decreasing, especially across
the south. May see some patchy fog develop in some lower valleys,
but kept out of the forecast for now. Drier air moves in for
Monday with dew points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
with some lower to mid 50s out west. This will lead to
temperatures warming up towards 100 degrees, but the heat will be
short lived as a nice cool down is expected in the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
On Monday, an upper ridge will be centered over Mexico with our
area on its northeastern periphery. At the same time, an upper
trough/low will be diving south into the central Rockies. With a
strengthened 850mb thermal ridge in our area, temperatures will be
hot with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
Some locations in the Big Country and Concho Valley could have
highs over 100. The record highs for Monday (Sep. 22) are 99 at
Abilene (in 2000) and 101 in San Angelo (in 1926).
The aforementioned upper low and trough will emerge into Kansas
by Wednesday, and then slowly move east to the mid-Mississippi
Valley Thursday. Models still differ with the specific strength
and placement of the upper trough and low, and on timing with the
arrival of the associated cold front. The NAM continues to be
fastest with the front, bringing it south into our central
counties by Tuesday late afternoon/evening, while other models
bring it through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with this front, and moisture
pooling along it could result in some locally heavy rainfall.
On Tuesday, temperatures will be hot ahead of the front with
highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. A faster arriving front could
limit highs to the upper 80s in our northern counties. The better
chance for cooler temperatures area wide looks to be Wednesday
and Thursday, when highs should be confined to the 80s.
With timing uncertainties and the possibility of an embedded
disturbance or two aloft moving over the area, chances of showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday, with rain chances dropping off from north to south by
Thursday.
Indications for the end of the week are for an upper level ridge
to shift east into the Plains and West Texas. At this time,
temperatures look to be near to slightly above normal with highs
in the mid 80s to near 90 Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered late afternoon and
evening TSRA at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Will continue the TEMPO
group for this activ ity at KABI. There is less confidence in
coverage farther south, so will not include a mention of TS for
southern terminals just yet. Otherwise, winds will continue to be
mainly out of the south at around 10KTS with a few gusts near
20KTS during the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  99  75  97 /  20   0   0  30
San Angelo  70  97  74  98 /  10   0   0  20
Junction    69  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   70  96  72  96 /  20   0   0  20
Sweetwater  72 100  73  97 /  10   0   0  30
Ozona       70  94  72  96 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       70  94  73  95 /  10   0   0  20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion