Saint Davids Church, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS61 KLWX 030137 AAA
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
937 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the northeast CONUS will push offshore Friday
into the weekend and remain there early next week. This will
result in a gradual warming trend over the coming days. A potent
cold front may push through around mid-week, bringing rain
chances and noticeably cooler temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Strong high pressure is currently centered over New England and
extends down the spine of the Appalachains through the Carolinas
and into Georgia. Upper ridging encompasses much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies, although there is a subtle embedded
shortwave near the Mississippi Valley. Some cirrus associated
with this wave will traverse the area overnight. However, they
appear somewhat thin and patchy on satellite, so radiational
cooling should still be able to take place. Dew points are
higher than last night, so there aren`t frost concerns, although
some valleys may still drop to the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. There`s
a slightly stronger signal for fog in guidance, although
between the clouds and residual dry air, it may be rather patchy
and limited to immediately along the rivers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned area of high pressure will push offshore
tomorrow and Saturday, which will result in increased
temperatures as winds turn out of the south. No precipitation
is expected during this time, and highs will rise to the middle
to upper 70s. Additionally, overnight lows will be a touch
warmer each night areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the region this weekend slides offshore at the
start of next week. Dry and warm conditions are expected to persist
Sunday into Monday as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s each day.
Overnight temps become increasingly mild, especially Monday night
and Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to 60s. As the surface
high moves further offshore through mid week, southerly return flow
brings increasing moisture into the area. This starts out as
scattered showers west of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday, then becoming
areawide on Wednesday.
A strong cold front is likely to move through the region sometime
during the middle of next week, though models differ on timing from
Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. Regardless, this could be
the first true fall front that brings widespread lows in the 30s to
40s across the region on Thursday night. Depending on where the high
is positioned Thursday night, frost and freeze conditions are
possible for some areas west of the Blue Ridge. Also, this might be
the best chance in quite a while for beneficial, widespread
rainfall. Ensemble guidance has 0.50-0.75" of rain, with higher end
solutions around 1.00-1.25".
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Largely VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.
Light E to SE winds overnight. Mainly high level clouds are
expected overnight, although there are still a few patches of
stratocumulus floating around near FL050. If these clouds are
thin enough, some brief fog could occur near MRB around sunrise.
Winds become southerly on Friday as high pressure shifts
offshore. Sct stratocu deck during the day, dissipating at
night. No sig wx is expected through Sunday morning.
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week
as high pressure remains over the region.
&&
.MARINE...
There has been a slight enhancement to the E/SE winds this
evening along the bay with occasional gusts near 20 kt. Model
guidance indicates this threat should subside by midnight if not
earlier, so have highlighted it with a Marine Weather Statement.
As high pressure remains over the northeast CONUS, winds remain
light. Winds will turn more southerly on Friday into Saturday,
but should still likely remain below SCA criteria.
Favorable marine conditions continue through early next week as high
pressure over the region moves offshore. South to southeast winds
during the day become light southwest at night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies have been declining or steady through late afternoon
and early evening. Have thus downgraded the warning for St.
Marys to an advisory. A few other locations are just on the cusp
of minor and could easily fall short since there doesn`t appear
to be much additional increase in water levels tonight. A
Coastal Flood Warning does remain in effect for Annapolis
through tonight`s high tide cycle since it will be close to
moderate. Elsewhere, widespread minor coastal flooding will
continue into Friday morning before water levels begin to drop
Friday. However, the more sensitive sites, especially Annapolis,
could continue in minor flood stage through the Saturday high
tide cycles. However, if this downward trend continues closer
to the STOFS and CBOFS, additional headlines may not be needed.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ016>018.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KRR
MARINE...ADS/CJL/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CJL

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion