Safety Harbor, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

970
FXUS62 KTBW 030005
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A weak stationary boundary was located across extreme south
Florida. Rather tight gradient between strong surface high
pressure north of the area and the frontal boundary to the south
is creating gusty east to northeast winds across the forecast
area.
The easterly flow off the Atlantic north of the stationary
boundary has been generating an area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the southeast coast. Although the majority of
the activity is expected to dissipate as it pushes inland, a few
showers have been making there way across the peninsula this
evening south of Tampa, with the best chance of a shower for the
next several hours across southwest Florida.
A weak area of low pressure may develop off the southeast coast
of Florida late in the day on Friday along the frontal boundary.
Regardless, the overall sensible weather pattern across west
central and southwest Florida will persist with gusty east to
northeast winds and scattered afternoon showers/isolated
thunderstorms mainly south of the I-4 corridor. Given the
relatively tight gradient across the region, a few stronger
showers/storms may be capable of producing wind gusts to around 40
MPH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A bit of an unsettled pattern expected the next few days. Strong,
gusty northeast to east winds expected today through the
beginning of the weekend as the pressure gradient remains tight
over the area. This will keep marine hazards elevated as the
winds and seas remain elevated. Along with gusty winds, moisture
will continue to increase over the next few days as an upper level
shortwave lingers over the area and a surface level wave moves
east to west over the peninsula into the Gulf this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected as these
features influence the pattern. Next week we shift back into a
more typical pattern, as high pressure builds back into the area.
This will allow more typical afternoon showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Predominately VFR CIGs will prevail at all terminals for the next
several hours. Scattered showers across southwest Florida may
create local MVFR CIGs/VSBYs until shortly after midnight. Late
tonight and Friday morning, areas of MVFR CIGs 015-025 will
develop vcnty all terminals. Cloud bases will lift by around noon
with areas of VFR CIGs around 035. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and
VSBYs...with the best chance impacting PGD/FMY/RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend as advisory
level winds continue to impact the waters. Winds begin to decrease a
bit Sunday, however will likely still be around cautionary levels
heading into next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain elevated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  88  74 /  40  10  30  10
FMY  89  73  86  73 /  50  20  50  20
GIF  86  72  86  73 /  50  20  40  20
SRQ  89  72  89  73 /  40  10  40  10
BKV  87  69  86  71 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  86  75  86  74 /  30  10  30  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion