Sabattus, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS61 KGYX 220603
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
203 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in control today as it gradually
shifts into the Gulf of Maine. A warming trend will continue
through Tuesday, with an increasing chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on Wednesday. More
seasonable conditions return for the rest of the week. Unsettled
conditions are possible early in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early on this Monday
morning shows mainly clear skies over much of the region with
just some lingering cirrus towards the Mid-Coast of ME. These
clear skies and light winds are allowing for another night of
radiational cooling, although not as cold as last night due to
higher sfc dew points. Current temperatures range from the
middle 30s across some northern valleys with upper 30s/40s
elsewhere. Additional cooling can be expected through sunrise
along with some valley fog.
Surface high pressure will begin to drift east over the Gulf of
ME today, allowing for increasing southerly return flow. Skies
will be partly to mostly sunny with dry conditions continuing
and high temperatures into the lower to middle 70s in most
locations. The coast will likely remain mainly into the 60s due
to the onshore flow, especially points east of Portland.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of frontal boundaries will begin to approach from the
north and west tonight, resulting in gradually increasing
cloudiness along with a few scattered showers after midnight...
especially across the north and mountains. The added cloud cover
and low-lvl moisture will limit low temperatures to the lower to
middle 50s in most locations. Fog may develop overnight as well.
Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are then
likely on Tuesday, especially during the afternoon hours. It
will be a mild day with high temperatures above avg into the
middle to upper 70s south of the mtns and a few spots may hit
the 80 degree mark under mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Evening Update...
A wetting rainfall looks increasing likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday across at least southern areas as moisture rides
along a slow moving front. Drier conditions return late
Wednesday and Thursday. More showers are possible Friday and
Saturday as moisture moves northward along the East Coast as a
cold front approaches, but much uncertainty remains at this time
on the progression of this feature.
Full Discussion...
A rather broad upper level trough will be setting up across the
Great Lakes region, with an elongated axis settling across NY
Monday Night into Tuesday. This will make for a summer-like day
as our local area of surface high pressure slides offshore,
opening the door to warm air advection. This will usher in
dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, an
elongated cold front associated with the upper trough to our
west will shift SE Tuesday night, though models continue to
exhibit a fair amount of variance on the timing of this
boundary. Looking at widely scattered showers and even a few
thunderstorms to develop as some instability drifts east by
Tuesday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the evening in
association with the shortwave. Past impulses have fizzled due
to antecedent dry conditions over the area, but this shortwave
will be interacting with increasing moisture from the gulf with
PWATs climbing upwards of 1.5"! This is a favorable trend for
widespread measurable rainfall chances, with about a 50% chance
of receiving 0.25" for much of the area between Tue/Wed with
that first shortwave.
Hopefully we can capitalize on this rainfall because the
forecast uncertainty increases thereafter. Once the main part of
the trough moves eastward into the Canadian maritimes, phasing
differs greatly in the model solutions. Current forecast favors
a blend which is more climatology, highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s. Some 30 pops possible Saturday with another frontal
passage, but there is strong divergence with this solution so
low chance on amounts even if hit/miss shower activity occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Other than some patchy nighttime FG through around
12Z this morning and again tonight, mainly VFR conditions will
prevail through the period. Light and variable winds early this
morning will become S-SE this afternoon at 5-15 kts, with gusts
approaching 20 kts. Light and variable winds return tonight
before becoming WSW on Tuesday. No LLWS is anticipated through
the period.
Long Term...VFR most of the time. Scattered showers and a few
tstms (Tue) could bring lower CIGs/VSBYs however.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure will remain over the waters today,
allowing for southeasterly winds to remain below 25 kts with
seas of 2-3 ft. Winds become southwesterly tonight through
Tuesday before veering to the northwest by Wednesday with gusts
approaching 25 kts at times. During this period, swells from
Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will increase to 3-5 ft over the
outer waters. Therefore, went ahead and hoisted a small craft
advisory that will run from late tonight through Wednesday.
Long Term...Small craft conditions are likely with a low
pressure system moving along a frontal boundary late Tuesday
into early Wednesday, with seas building to 5 feet. Seas will
recede later in the forecast, but uncertainty in the development
of additional embedded shortwaves thereafter.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
 for ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Clair/Jamison

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion