Ryegate, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

884
FXUS65 KBYZ 011933
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
133 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, above normal temperatures through Friday.
- Pattern change to cooler and wetter arrives by Saturday, lasting
  into early next week. 40-80% chance of greater than 0.5 inches
  of precipitation.
- Pattern change will bring snow to the mountains, and possibly
  the foothills, this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will remain above average with
70s F (west) to low 80s F (east) across the region. Precipitation
chances (20-40%) will be present for the Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains. Thursday night through Friday, a weak surface low
pressure system wraps moisture into the region slowly spreading
precipitation chances east across the region.
There is more clarity in this weekends forecast than a few days
ago. There is now agreement that one impactful system will move
through the region Saturday/Sunday. Saturday, a 500 mb trough
starts to lift north creating a much stronger low pressure system
that moves through the central and northern plains. Winds on the
backside of the low will be out of the north/northwest creating
favorable upslope for the mountains and foothills in the forecast
area. The system continues to move to the east, likely lowering
the impacts to our region throughout the day Sunday. There are
still uncertainties with exact timing of precipitation but this
seems to be the most likely evolution of the system.
Even though there is more confidence in the evolution and timing
of the system, significant uncertainties in precipitation amounts
and precipitation type persist. The NBM is currently giving a
40-80% chance of getting greater than 0.5 inches of precipitation.
Precipitation type may be the most important aspect of this to
watch moving forward as it will determine how much snow the
mountains get and if/how much snow the foothills receive.
Currently, precipitation is expected to change from rain to snow
for the mountains Saturday as 700 mb temperatures decrease. There
is increasing confidence that the foothills will also receive
snow starting Sunday morning. How much snow foothills locations
receive will largely depend on how much overlap there is between
precipitation chances and the cooler temperatures that are
expected behind the system leading to great uncertainty. Snowfall
totals exceeding 6 inches are likely (60-100%) for our mountain
locations with chances (40-70%) for greater than 12 inches
largely being confined to the Beartooths.
High temperatures Saturday are expected to be in the 50s F in the
west and 60s F in the east before all locations drop into the 50s
F for Sunday and Monday. Monday and Tuesday mornings are expected
to be the coldest with most of the region having a >50% chance of
getting a freeze. Temperatures increase back into the 60s F for
early next week. Torgerson
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. West to southwest
winds gusting 20-30 knots will decrease through this afternoon and
evening. Matos
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/079 052/073 051/057 042/053 035/057 036/061 039/069
    01/U    12/W    68/T    64/W    21/B    11/U    11/U
LVM 045/074 043/073 042/054 032/049 025/056 027/061 033/066
    04/W    35/T    88/W    75/W    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 046/082 048/076 049/059 040/054 032/058 031/063 035/068
    00/U    11/B    78/T    73/W    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 049/082 053/080 052/065 042/057 033/060 033/063 038/069
    00/U    00/B    36/T    72/W    11/B    10/U    11/U
4BQ 050/082 053/080 052/065 042/054 035/056 036/061 040/069
    00/U    00/B    26/T    83/W    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 049/083 050/085 049/068 040/056 030/058 031/061 036/067
    00/U    00/B    13/T    72/W    11/B    10/U    11/U
SHR 045/082 046/080 044/061 034/051 028/056 029/061 033/069
    00/U    00/B    58/T    85/W    32/W    11/U    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion