Rosenthal, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS64 KFWD 201025
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
525 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through early next
  week.
- Low rain chances will continue through the weekend, but will
  increase with the approach of a strong midweek cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/
A dry and tranquil overnight period is in store for the region as
we head into the weekend. Expect temperatures to drop into the
mid 60s to mid 70s near daybreak as cirrus continues to stream
overhead. The region will remain planted underneath W-WNW flow
aloft, with a mid-level ridge to our southwest and a broad trough
to our north/northeast. Low rain chances will return to portions
of North Texas this afternoon near a lingering diffuse surface
boundary as a minute shortwave disturbance moves into the Central
Plains. Most of this activity will likely remain to our
northwest, though there will be potential for our northwestern
counties to observe some isolated- scattered showers and storms in
the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not expected,
though lightning and gusty, erratic winds may impact any outdoor
plans. This will not be a wash out by any means, and most will
likely remain dry. Afternoon highs will be able to peak in the
90s.
The shortwave will continue to advance east, digging south as it
does. To our west, the ridge will slightly bulk up, transitioning
the mid-level winds to more of a northwest direction. This will
allow for a decaying complex of showers and storms originating in
the Panhandles to move southeast towards our CWA overnight into
Sunday morning. Severe weather is again not expected, though gusty
winds and lighting will be the main hazards. There is still
uncertainty on just how far the complex will make it into North
Texas, with high-res guidance keeping the complex near/west of the
I-35 corridor. The caveat to this is that high-res guidance
usually does not handle this kind of complex well, so we will
really need to wait and see just how things develop this evening
to know more on the movement.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and storms may linger
through the afternoon on Sunday alongside high temperatures in the
upper 80s to mid 90s.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
/Sunday Evening Onward/
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be
possible as we head into the new work week, mainly across North
Texas and the Red River in response to a passing shortwave. The
bigger story in the long term forecast is the increasing potential
for a PACNW shortwave trough to amplify into a stout closed low
as it swings across the Central-Southern Plains, sending a cold
front south through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. While
the low will remain to our north, there will be enough lift for
scattered showers and storms to develop near the boundary as it
moves south. Behind the front, expect cooler temperatures in the
80s to linger through the latter half of the week. Long-range
guidance is in much better agreement with the front than
yesterday, but there is still a bit of variation on exact timing
of the front. We`ll continue to keep an eye on incoming guidance
as we go through the weekend as more details will become available
in the coming days. While not the true "fall-like" cold front, it
will be a welcome reprieve to the 90s we have been observing.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
There is currently an outflow boundary moving south-southeast
through Oklahoma, but guidance washes it out as it nears the Red
River. There is no impact expected from it at the D10 TAF sites,
but we will keep an eye on its movement. Otherwise, southerly
winds will continue to oscillate between 200-130 degrees through
the next 24-30 hours.
There remains low chances for the Bowie cornerpost to be impacted
by isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, While
we cannot rule out a couple showers/storms approaching western
D10, most if not all of this activity should stay to the west of
the TAF sites. We`ll monitor for any necessary inclusion of
VCSH/VCTS this afternoon. Overnight, a complex of storms will move
SE through the Panhandles into North Texas. There is still
uncertainty on just how far the complex will make it into the
region before dissipating, so have foregone any mention of
rain/storms in the D10 TAF sites for now.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  73  92  74  93 /   5  10  20  10  10
Waco                92  72  92  73  94 /   5   5  10   5   5
Paris               92  68  90  70  91 /   5   5  20  20  30
Denton              94  70  92  72  94 /  10  20  30  20  10
McKinney            93  71  91  72  92 /   5  10  20  20  20
Dallas              94  74  93  74  94 /   5  10  20  10  10
Terrell             92  69  90  71  92 /   0   5  20  10  10
Corsicana           93  72  92  73  94 /   0   5  10   5  10
Temple              92  70  92  71  94 /   5   5  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       94  69  93  71  96 /  10  30  40  20  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion