Rhodes, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS63 KAPX 250624
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showery at times today. Lesser shower chances tonight into
  Friday.
- Trending drier with anomalous warmth this weekend and into
  early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Broad cutoff low pressure over the central and eastern Great Lakes
will slowly meander eastward with time today into tonight. Ample
moisture and cyclonic flow will allow for discrete, diurnal
convection to materialize once again, with particular focus on the
northeast lower Michigan area. Additional fog development possible
tonight as moisture slowly begins to move out of the area... albeit,
probably to a lesser spatial extent.
Forecast Details:
Currently socked in with low clouds and fog in a lot of locales,
with most broad shower coverage hovering over Lake Huron, sending a
couple showers to those coastal areas of northeast lower. Another
area being drivel by convergent cyclonic flow has allowed for some
more convectively agitated showers to materialize over the Grand
Traverse Bay area. Anticipating this activity to continue its trek
eastward, and with the breakdown of forcing aloft, those NW lower
showers will taper off considerably closer to daybreak. Will have to
wait for diurnal heating to scour out the low cloud and fog.
Anticipating some sun to peek through the clouds this afternoon as
temperatures warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. This should be
enough to force some additional afternoon shower activity,
particularly across northeast lower where forcing and surface
convergence will likely remain greatest. Not anticipating anything
overly heavy, and these showers will impact a rather small area.
Honestly, most of the area probably holds dry this afternoon
otherwise. Heading into tonight, shower coverage set to decrease
again with loss of daytime instability. Lingering, but exiting, low
level moisture may permit some additional fog development tonight,
but not anticipating an overly widespread footprint with that
activity across northern lower due to moisture set to clear out
(including potential for clearing skies). For the eastern Yoop,
things start out dry with a clearing trend, but a final piece of
shortwave troughing will pass through the region later tonight and
may bring a returning shower chance. Lows tonight 45-55, coolest in
the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
In the wake of the departing cutoff, may still contend with areas of
northern lower east of US 131 getting clipped by the passing wing of
shortwave troughing pivoting around the closed system and drumming
up an afternoon shower Friday... but the bigger story likely becomes
a potentially prolonged dry stretch. The pattern shifts with us
returning back into a ridging regime Saturday and through the
remainder of the forecast period. Caveat to consider is that we will
be under some relatively quick zonal flow aloft... so may need to
check and see if any impulses can ride that corridor of flow and
sneak in a shower chance. For the time being, guidance is quite
bearish to that idea. As such, anticipation is that we realize a dry
and summer-like stretch of temperatures this weekend and into next
week... with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s being status quo
Saturday through Monday. May contend with an additional backdoor
front with time next week as some disturbances try to suppress the
ridging regime, which may put us into play for another period of dry
easterly flow and cooler temperatures midweek and beyond,
particularly across the eastern half of the APX footprint. With most
of the recent rainfall remaining discrete, will have to keep an eye
on fire weather parameters as we once again embark on a dry and warm
spell... coupled with debris littering the forest floors from
this spring`s ice storm. More details to come.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Yet another early morning of MVFR to LIFR producing
fog/mist/stratus. And, much like the previous days, expect fog
and mist to lift fairly quickly after sunrise...with cloud bases
taking a bit longer to increase. Expect more rapid improvement
this afternoon, with skies likely scattering out at locations
other than KAPN. Skies expected to clear this evening. No
significant wind concerns through the period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion