Redstone Arsenal, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS64 KHUN 240453
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Southwesterly flow will continue to result in increasing moisture
across the Tennessee Valley overnight as a weak upper wave moves
across the lower OH River Valley. This has resulted in broken
thunderstorms north of the AL/TN state line stretching west toward
Memphis. This activity should stay outside of the forecast area
through much of the overnight hours as the better forcing for
storms remains to our west. It will be worth watching the
convective evolution of the storms currently in a line from
western TN through central AR and SE OK as some high res guidance
has storms approaching NW AL around 6am. Any morning thunderstorm
activity should be below severe limits but would work to increase
the flooding risk as we go throughout the day. Otherwise overnight
lows will be on the warm side only falling to the upper 60s/lower
70s.
The risk for a few strong to severe storms will increase as we
head into tomorrow afternoon and evening as an upper low and
associated trough becomes better amplified as it shifts east
across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions and a second wave
generates a multi- cellular or linear complex of storms across
eastern TX. Our primary concern will be with this wave and what
happens between it and and morning round of storms. High res
guidance differs quite a bit still regarding the evolution of
these storm complexes, so we will focus more on the threats while
also speaking to the uncertainty.
There will be enough instability present (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg)
to support strong updrafts within thunderstorm clusters and
combined with 0-6km bulk shear in the 30-35kt range will support
the threat for gusty to damaging winds up to 60mph. Low level
shear profiles do not immediately wave a red flag for tornadoes,
but will need to be monitored as these storms evolve. SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for damaging winds that
could be upgraded late tonight or tomorrow depending on forecast
trends.
With a fairly saturated moisture column where PWATS range from
1.8-2" and the system expected to slow as it tracks east, the risk
for flash flooding will increase tomorrow and tomorrow evening.
With the heavy rainfall received in some locations earlier today,
training thunderstorms with intense rain rates could result in
localized or flash flooding. Residents and those traveling
tomorrow will need to pay close attention to the forecast as this
dual threat for severe storms and flooding evolves.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The severe risk should gradually wind down late Wednesday night as
the support from diurnal heating weakens but lingering convection
will carry the risk for flooding through Thursday before a cold
front begins to usher in a welcomed cooler and drier airmass on
Friday. With an upper low slow to move east of the area on Friday,
some lingering showers may exist primarily east of I-65 but are
expected to be light and not pose any further risk for flooding.
Temperatures will drop to highs in the low 80s Friday afternoon as
clouds begin to clear the region from west to east and will set up
for a nice start to the weekend as any lingering rain should
clear the area by Friday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The forecast for much of the long term looks dry thanks to high
pressure over the mid MS River valley. Highs will top out near the
low to mid 80s each afternoon with lows in the upper 50s/lower
60s. Low rain and thunderstorm chances look to creep back in
early next week as the aforementioned upper low begins to shift
back west over the region resulting in an increase in moisture and
slightly warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low clouds and vicinity showers will impact MSL through the night
and into the morning. Beyond 12Z the forecast is quite uncertain.
Tried to capture trends in the the TAFs and will work to refine
exact timing and intensity of storms in future issuances. It is
likely some storms will be ongoing near sunrise around MSL and
dissipate through the morning. Additional storms are expected
through the afternoon, this will be the period with best chances
for lightning and or a convective gust of 25+ KTS. Beyond 0z,
storm intensity should wane with lower clouds and rain lingering
through the night.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion