Red Creek, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

075
FXUS61 KBUF 230640
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to
the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into
the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an
unsettled pattern.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across western and central NY
this morning. Modest forcing combined with PWATS around 1.75" will
support showers across forecast area. A cluster of heavier showers
is expected to move into north-central NY early this morning.
An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through
tonight. A southwest flow will continue to supply the eastern Great
Lakes with deep moisture. A southwest to northeast oriented moisture
axis will persist from northwest Pennsylvania to central NY today
and be a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms. Weak
subsidence will build into western NY behind the exiting shortwave
trough and widespread showers will taper off from west to east,
especially across western NY through this morning. Daytime heating
and moisture will support weak surface based instability inland from
the lake shadows, and additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon. Average rainfall amounts will range from
0.25-0.50" across interior portions of the western Southern Tier to
the southern Tug Hill region. Rainfall amounts will taper off
further north, with the exception of where showers and possibly a
thunderstorm develop along lake breezes. Higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms.
Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Widely
scattered showers are possible this evening, before mostly dry
conditions continue overnight. Areas of fog are expected to develop
across the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog
development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake
Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn
east and southeast towards the region. Meanwhile, shortwave energy
ejecting out of the Bridger-Teton and Unitas mountain range will
quickly track eastward and begin to interact with this closed low.
As this interaction occurs, a sfc low tracking across the mid-
Mississippi valley is advertised to strengthen as it nears the Ohio
Valley late Wednesday. Increasing moisture (PW surging to 1.7") and
lift ahead of the low will potentially bring the next round of
showers and storms by late Wednesday afternoon-evening which could
even persist all the way through the day Friday. That being said,
there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and also
the degree of shower coverage. For what its worth...there appears to
be a general trend towards drier weather as we move into Friday
afternoon-night and into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak sfc high pressure over the region will deliver dry weather on
Saturday. There is very weak moisture starved front that is
advertised to move quickly through the Lower Lakes Saturday night.
Sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley rapidly builds east behind the
front Sunday with dry weather continuing through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread light showers within a very moist airmass will continue
to support a mix of flight conditions across the region this
morning. Overall, IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the higher
terrain and east of Lake Ontario, with MVFR/VFR across the Niagara
Frontier into Rochester this morning. Flight conditions will slowly
improve during daylight hours while showers linger across the
Southern Tier and the North Country. Drier air will bring flight
conditions to VFR quicker at KIAG, KBUF, and KROC Today. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form inland from the lake
shadows this afternoon, and may produce a brief period of IFR or
below at KIAG, KBUF, or KROC. Confidence is low at this time.
Showers will taper off tonight with mostly dry weather expected
across the region. Areas of fog are expected to develop which may
produce IFR or below at TAF sites. Chances are medium to high at
KJHW and KROC.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and calm waters are expected through tonight. A
northeast wind will create a moderate chop on the waters starting
Wednesday. There is a low chance of Small Craft Advisories through
Friday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion