Recluse, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

542
FXUS63 KUNR 291112
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
512 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry (isolated shra/TS today) with above average
  temperatures through Thursday
- Gusty southerly winds through Tuesday east of the Black Hills
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times through Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
07z surface analysis had snaking lee trough from central MT into
eastern CO with a weak low along near the MT/WY/SD border. There
is a hint of a boundary extending from low into IA, which is being
impinged upon by 40kt low-level jet. Thus, weak convection
percolating over south-central SD early this morning. Water vapour
loop had upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with southwest flow
aloft atop the northern Plains. Weak shortwave evident over
northern CO, which will impact the CWA today.
Today/tonight, northern CO shortwave moves north along with a
patch of mid-level moisture. Weak buoyancy this afternoon will be
sufficient to fuel isolated shra/TS in/near the higher terrain
per local convergence overcoming modest MLCIN. Coverage should be
greatest over the northern Black Hills/locally adjacent plains
given downstream convergence courtesy of south/southeast boundary
layer flow. Decent pressure gradient will support gusty southerly
winds east of the Black Hills. High temperatures this afternoon
will be a bit lower than yesterday given mid/high cloud cover
increase.
Tuesday through Thursday afternoon, southwest flow aloft
continues as upper trough gradually pushes into the northwest
CONUS. Gustiest southerly winds Tuesday should wane by Wednesday
per hint of a front slipping through Wednesday. Moisture will be
limited. Cold front arrives Thursday night/Friday as upper trough
approaches, moisture increases, and seasonal temperatures develop
for the weekend. Increasing PoPs, but probabilistic guidance not
too excited about impactful QPF. Did spot a few snowflakes over
the higher hills Sunday night, but snow lovers shouldn`t get too
animated.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 510 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Isolated shra/TS over central SD will dissipate early this
morning. Additional isolated shra/TS may develop this
afternoon/early evening over northeastern WY/Black Hills, but the
chance is to low to reflect in the terminals at this time. Except
for some early morning IFR patchy fog over the SD/ND border, VFR
conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Elevated fire danger continues through Thursday as sustained
mostly dry and unseasonably warm weather continues. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible today/early this evening over
northeastern WY/Black Hills. Gusty southerly winds will continue
east of the Black Hills Monday/Tuesday. MinRH in the 20s will be
common with perhaps some upper teens in the southwest, especially
Thursday. High to locally very high grassland fire danger expected
through Wednesday over portions of the western SD plains.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion