Rangely, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS65 KGJT 201753
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1153 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers will continue this morning with more widespread
  convection expected this afternoon and evening.
- Northern valleys and mountains are favored for some isolated
  showers and storms on Sunday.
- Drier air returns to start the work week. Unsettled weather
  may return late in the week although model uncertainty
  remains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
As predicted, moisture has continued streaming into the area
with some showers and a few rumbles of thunder noted over mainly
southern portions of the forecast area. The jet stream overhead
is providing enough lift to allow this convection to keep going
though having said that, coverage is decreasing. CAMs continue
suggesting showers continuing this morning, with more showers
and thunderstorms developing this afternoon thanks to daytime
heating and weak impulses moving across the area. A secondary
disturbance will move through in the evening allowing
convection, albeit a bit weaker, to continue through the early
morning hours. Sunday, ridging tries to build in from the south
as minor shortwaves move across Wyoming. CAMs are hinting at
very isolated showers/storms for the northern half of the CWA
while the NBM is a bit more aggressive. The highest PWATs will
be found over the northern valleys/mountains so any slight
wiggle in the mean flow should be enough to release some
instability and allow showers/storms to form. 20 to 40% chance
for this convection seems reasonable at the moment. Highs
through the period will remain on the warm side though any
persistent cloud cover and precip will help to moderate these
temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Lingering moisture coupled with some passing weak waves of energy
will allow for PoPs to stay elevated overnight Sunday into Monday.
The greatest PoPs during this timeframe will be primarily be north
of I-70, where moisture is most abundant. Monday`s precipitation
forecast still holds much uncertainty. The moisture plume associated
with southwesterly flow off of a low pressure system near the coast
of Southern California, which carries PWAT anomalies upwards of 200%
of normal, looks to remain just south of our CWA as another low
pressure system from the Pacific Northwest moves through the area.
Flow associated with this more northern system will still carry
moisture into the CWA on Monday, but perhaps of a less anomalous
amount of moisture. The ECMWF Ens suggests more moisture than the
GFS Ens, but both show well above normal PWAT values with the
passing of this system. With the increased moisture, upper level
support, and a passing cold front, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the day Monday. Depending on the
timing of the propagation of this system, precipitation could
persist into the overnight hours Monday night and through the day
Tuesday. After Tuesday drier northerly flow drops PoPs through the
remainder of the workweek. High temperatures tend to hover around
normal through the long term period, but will be a bit lower on
Tuesday after the cold front passage.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon, mainly over high terrain. KTEX, KASE and KEGE have
better chance to see impacts with gusty winds and brief light
rain so kept TEMPO groups here, whereas lower valleys have
PROB30 groups for potential -TSRA at times. Most shower activity
should end by sunset with a few isolated showers lingering
overnight. Activity shifts northward by Sunday. Overall, expect
VFR conditions to prevail with MVFR at times due to lower CIGS
in shower activity.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion