Raccoon Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

679
FXUS64 KHGX 281730
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Continue to use caution when working with open flame or
  equipment that can cause sparks as dry conditions persist across
  the area.
- Hot, dry, and mostly sunny conditions carry us into the new
  week. A brief upper disturbance looks to increase clouds Monday
  night and Tuesday, but a sunnier sky will return after it
  departs.
- Rain chances will be virtually nil until late this week when
  moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The main weather impact continues to be repeated days of very dry
air and low humidity increasing the risk of fire starts. Except
for the coastal zones, RH is forecast to fall between 30-35% each
afternoon this week. A few locations west of the Brazos River
Valley should also fall into the upper 20s for a few hours each
afternoon (through Wednesday) as well. A combination of dry air,
warm temperatures, and sunshine will increase the likelihood of
fire starts. Thankfully, light wind speeds will keep the overall
fire threat low. This means fire starts are easier, but the risk
of them spreading into large wildfires is low. Unless you are
well-versed in burn management, continue to use caution when
working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks as
dry conditions persist across the area.
Today`s weather is very similar to the past couple days with only
minor shifts in the prevailing weather systems. The high pressure
ridge has shifted slightly eastward and a weak low pressure center
has developed in the central Gulf (about 360 miles southeast of
Galveston). As a result, the winds are slightly more easterly
today compared to the past couple days. We should also see the
seabreeze circulation ramp up for coastal locations later this
afternoon. Other than that, the sensible weather is largely the
same with highs around 90 and quite low humidity. Tomorrow should
be similar, but slightly warmer temperatures and a more pronounced
inland seabreeze circulation in the afternoon. We will also see
cirrus start to filter into region in advance of an upper low that
will swing across Texas early this week. The main influence of the
low for our area will be a smattering of mid- and upper-level
clouds Monday night through Tuesday night. A few virga showers
(aka elevated radar returns) may occur, but the sub-cloud layer
should be far too dry to support measurable precipitation at the
ground.
The evolution of the upper low and its attendant low-level
features will be consequential to the day 6-10 forecast. Right
now, Wednesday and Thursday should be the warmest days of the week
with highs in the mid 90s as we sit on the back side of the upper
low to our east. The global guidance has hinted at a surface low
developing to our east as a mass response to the upper low
stalling near the LA/MS Gulf Coast. This would result in more
onshore flow late this week/next weekend and a return to
mentionable precip chances. PoPs (mainly seabreeze activity)
increase near the coast Thursday afternoon, with isolated to
scattered showers/storms creeping further inland each day beyond
that with Sunday afternoon`s PoPs extending as far north as about
Livingston and Brenham. Humidity should also be more manageable
(minimum afternoon RH between 40-50%) during this timeframe.
I want to take this time to dig a little deeper into some fire
weather vernacular used by NWS offices across the state. The Texas
A&M Forest Service issues a product called fire danger that
describes the potential for a fire to ignite, spread, and require
suppression action. We usually use this product to get an idea of
and to help us communicate the propensity for fire starts. The NWS
then uses that product, ERC values (fuel dryness), and weather
information to forecast a fire threat. Fire threat is informally
defined as the potential for a fire to become hard to suppress or
control and pose a risk to life or property. This week, the TAMFS
is forecasting a Moderate to High fire danger, but the overall
fire threat is low due to light wind speeds.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.AVIATION...
VFR vis/cigs to prevail through the TAF period. Winds this
afternoon from the NE will be mostly light. Occasional gusts
over 15 knots are possible. Winds become light and variable this
evening and tonight. Expect similar conditions tomorrow.
Self
&&
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Northeast winds around 15 kts are expected today and tomorrow with
2-4 foot seas. If any stronger winds materialize, small craft will
need to exercise caution. Going into the middle of the week, the
daily landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will become dominant as seas also
diminish to less than 2 feet. Late in the week, strengthening
easterlies are forecast.
Bonnette
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  62  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  67  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  75  89  77 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonnette
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Bonnette

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion