Pyron, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

117
FXUS64 KSJT 202005
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday.
- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be
  cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
West central Texas will remain under somewhat weak northwest flow
tonight into Sunday. High resolution CAMs show scattered convection
developing later today to our northwest across parts of the Texas
panhandle southeast into northwest Texas. Some of these storms
could eventually reach parts of our northern Big Country area
north of I-20 later tonight, so have kept a 20% chance for showers
and thunderstorms going in that area. In addition, a weak
shortwave trough will move through the southern plains Sunday,
bringing another chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the best chances will be north of I-20, there
is a low chance for some of these storms to reach as far south as
the Concho Valley, so have added some 20% PoPs south of I-20 as
well for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will continue
to be warm, with lows tonight in the mid 60s to near 70, and highs
on Sunday in the mid to upper 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Upper level high pressure over northern Mexico will expand
northward into our area on Sunday and Monday. This will result in
near record high temperatures, with highs rising into the upper
90s to near 102 degrees across portions of the Big Country and
Concho Valley. By Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level trough
begins to dive down out of the northern Rockies and into the
central Plains. This will push a cold front into west central
Texas Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures on
Tuesday ahead of the front will be hot, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s. It should be noted, however, that the NAM is much
faster with the progression of the front and would result in much
cooler temperatures for Tuesday than what is currently reflected
in the forecast. Regardless, highs will cool down into the 80s
for Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances (30-40%) are highest on
Wednesday when scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
along the front. Models indicate upper level ridging building back
into the region for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites
through late Sunday morning, with south to southeast winds around
10 knots. Although there is a chance for TSRA north of I-20 later
tonight, confidence is not high enough in coverage of this
activity to introduce a mention at KABI at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  96  74  99 /  10  20  10   0
San Angelo  69  94  71  97 /  10  20  10   0
Junction    68  92  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood   69  93  71  96 /  10  20  10   0
Sweetwater  71  97  72 100 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       69  92  69  94 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       69  92  70  94 /   0  10  10   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion