Providence, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS63 KIND 051333
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
933 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Sunny and Very warm today; Increasing clouds tonight.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday
- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return for Wednesday
  through next weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast with conditions
generally evolving as expected. Temperatures are rapidly rising into
the low to mid 60s with the last of the near surface fog
dissipating. The main focus for today continues to be the elevated
fire risk, mainly across the northwestern portions of central
Indiana. RH values are expected to drop to near 30 percent before
moisture advection ahead of the expected rain Monday night into
Tuesday brings higher dew points to central Indiana. Winds at the
top of the boundary layer will be 20-25 mph which will bring
occasional gusts as high as that across the area with greatest
confidence towards Lafayette.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over
the east coast, extending its influence west into the Ohio Valley
and into the eastern Plains States. Light south winds were in place
across Central Indiana, with moist dew points mainly in the middle
50s. GOES19 shows clear skies across Indiana and much of the region.
Some high clouds were found along the Gulf coast and over the high
plains...but those will be Monday`s weather-makers. Aloft, water
vapor showed strong ridging in place over the Appalachians extending
north into eastern Ontario. Strong subsidence was found across
Indiana and the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys.
Today and Tonight...
Only small, subtle change are expected in today`s weather. Models
show the strong ridging aloft to the east moving farther east,
allowing for the development of southwesterly flow aloft. Models
suggest little in the way of forcing dynamics flowing across Indiana
today. Tonight, two systems will begin their approach toward
Indiana. The first will be an upper level weather disturbance over
the deep south, and the second is associated with a deepening upper
trough pushing out of the high plains. Neither of these systems
appear to impact Indiana today, however some high cloud may begin to
invade overnight as they approach.
Forecast soundings today again show a dry column with little overall
change in the airmass. A mid level inversion is shown to be present
this afternoon, thus while some CU will likely form vertical growth
will be limited. Thus another mostly sunny day will be in store.
An increasing pressure gradient within the lower levels due to the
departure of the surface high may allow for higher wind speeds, with
values around 10-15mph. An afternoon gust to around 20 will be
possible. This good mixing with little change in the airmass will
allow for slightly higher temperatures today.
Furthermore, the slightly higher temperatures and stronger winds
combined with recent dry conditions will result in a enhanced fire
weather risk, with farm field fires possible.
Tonight, as discussed above, little moisture or forcing appears
available. However, forecast soundings in the evening change from
very dry to a clearly increasing moisture signal overnight. Thus
this should be the arrival of some increasing high clouds during the
overnight. Thus an increasing cloudiness type forecast should work.
Overnight lows should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s given the
increasing clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Summer is still holding strong for much of the CONUS despite it
being the first week of October...however a shift in the weather
pattern is on the way bringing rain and slightly cooler temperatures.
Monday and Tuesday...
The work week begins with another hot Autumn day as the state
remains in a southerly flow pattern ahead of an approaching front
from the west. Strong warm and moist air advection into the region
and partly sunny skies support highs in the low to mid 80s once
again with rising humidity, making it feel more like summer. Subtle
boundaries and waves of energy ahead of the front within the warm
sector may spark off scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon,
within a warm, humid, and destabilizing environment. Storm coverage
should remain isolated to scattered as the best forcing for ascent
will still be well to the west Monday afternoon.
Expect precipitation coverage to increase late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning as the front approaches and the low level jet
ramps up. Keeping low thunder chances in the forecast for this time
period as just enough elevated CAPE may be present to support
isolated lightning strikes. Heaviest precipitation is expected
across the Southern half of the state, with guidance suggesting a
precip maxima somewhere in southern Indiana and along the Ohio
River. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are likely for
Central Indiana with higher totals possible for areas that get
repeated rounds of convection. Greatest chances for rain and storms
shift toward the southern and eastern half of Central Indiana during
the day on Tuesday as the front makes its way through the state.
Tuesday will likely be the most dreary day within the long term as
much drier weather returns for the rest of the week and into the
following weekend.
Wednesday through Sunday...
A brief taste of Fall arrives Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure moves in across the Upper Great Lakes with cold air
advection and northerly flow across Indiana. Expect highs in the mid
60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s during this time.
Dry weather likely persists into the following weekend as surface
high pressure remains the dominant weather feature in the long term.
Long range guidance suggest a slow warm up back to the low to mid
70s for Central Indiana with mainly sunny skies.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Impacts:
- Patchy fog at KBMG early this morning
Discussion:
Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except for
very early this morning at KBMG where fog has resulted in MVFR vis
at times. Expect any fog to quickly dissipate by 13z.
Expect winds to follow a typical diurnal curve today, increasing
during the day and then diminishing after sunset. Southerly winds
increase to 10-12 kts at all sites 15-23z today with gusts of 15-20
kts possible during peak heating of the day. High pressure remains
in control of the weather locally, keeping conditions VFR through
the rest of the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...CM

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion