Progreso Lakes, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS64 KBRO 300331
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Ridging aloft holds mostly dry conditions through Thursday.
- Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze
  boundary return, beginning Friday, but temperatures remain near
  to slightly above average.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents is likely throughout much of the
  forecast, possibly reaching peak intensity over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Conditions are expected to remain dry (less than 15% PoP`s) across
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Thursday as a mid-
level high pressure expands over Mexico, continuing ridging aloft.
By Friday morning, at least a low (15-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated across coastal areas, continuing into
the beginning of next week, thanks to persistent upper level
divergence provided by a developing mid/upper level low, lingering
over the central Gulf Coast states as well as a slight retreat in
the mid-level high. Each day during this period, the westward-
propagation of the seabreeze boundary will bring a low to medium
(30-40% or 50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
morning and afternoon hours to inland areas, remaining mostly
east of US-281/I-69 C, with the best chances generally along and
east of I-69 E. Areas further west may only have a low (20-30%)
chance by Saturday as mid-level heights lower. However, recent
runs of the GFS and ECMWF only exhibit roughly 1.3-1.5 inches of
PWAT across the region over the weekend, possibly maximizing as
high as 1.7 inches, which is about near to slightly above average
for this time of year, though not as high as is typical for
convection producing heavy rain. So, rainfall rates may be on the
lighter side as ridging continues nearby, though higher PWAT
values and heavier rain may be possible towards the very end of
the period, next Tuesday.
Additionally, beachgoers will need to take extra precaution for rip
currents over the next 7 days as wind-induced swells increase wave
periods, potentially also wave heights, arriving over the next few
days from a weak low pressure circulation, moving southwest into
the western Gulf waters, and over the weekend from building high
pressure expected over the eastern Gulf in the wake of Imelda. The
combination of these factors with east-northeasterly winds is
likely to lead to a persistent medium risk for rip currents, which
have a history of resulting in the greatest number of casualties
at area beaches along the Lower Texas coastline.
Throughout the forecast, high temperatures are likely to continue
to range from near average with low/mid 90`s east of US-281/I-69 C
to slightly above average with mid/upper 90`s for areas to the west,
possibly cooling by a degree or two over the weekend as clouds
build. Near average overnight lows of upper 60`s to lower 70`s
become mostly 70`s inland over the weekend. Highs in the mid 80`s
and lows in the mid 70`s persist at the coast. A minor (level 1
of 4) heat risk continues.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Moderate north-northeasterly winds this evening are likely to
become light and variable to calm overnight, picking back up out
of the north-northeast again tomorrow afternoon (around 10-15
knots, gusting to 15-20 knots). Dry weather is expected with
lowered humidity, so expecting VFR conditions to continue.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Gentle to moderate east-northeasterly winds and slight to moderate
(2-3 ft) seas are expected to become easterly with moderate (3-4 ft)
seas over the weekend. Aside from a low (15-30%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms further offshore, conditions remain mostly dry
through the day Thursday before increasing to at least a low to
moderate (30-50%) chance or higher over the weekend and into next
week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
September is about to close, with overall temperatures ranking
among the top 5 to 20 hottest on record, and, despite the frequent
isolated-scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for most days,
slightly below average, area-wide, on rainfall. We`ll provide more
details by Wednesday after the month is complete.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  90  74  91 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               68  92  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 72  95  72  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  87 /  10  20  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  88  74  89 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish
MARINE...65-Irish
CLIMATE...52-Goldsmith

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion