Posen, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler, but still seasonable, Tuesday-Thursday.
- Another push of late season warmth Friday into the weekend.
- Dry conditions through at least the end of this week, with a
  degree of concern toward fire weather at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified mid-upper level ridging remains
the rule over the nation`s midsection through the short term
forecast period. At the surface, high pressure dominates, although a
backdoor cold front is expected to cross northern MI from north to
south later tonight into Tuesday.
Forecast Details: Not a whole lot in the way of sensible weather
through the duration of the short term forecast period. Warm
temperatures this afternoon give way to a cool night ahead with many
spots falling into the 40s away from the lakeshores. A couple of the
typically cooler spots perhaps into the upper 30s.
With respect to fog potential tonight, still think its low for most
non-fog prone areas. Low lying, typically fog prone spots have the
best shot at least some patchy fog with latest HREF/SREF probs for
sub-3 mi visibility topping out at 10-20%.
Mostly sunny skies anticipated Tuesday with winds flipping out of
the east-northeast in response to late night/early Tuesday cold
front passage. Winds could be gusty at times, especially through the
Straits and across parts of Lake Huron/northeast lower. High temps a
touch cooler than today -- topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s
for most. Mid-upper 70s in downsloping areas of northwest lower,
primarily near and west of US-131.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Day 3-7 (Wednesday - Sunday):
Not a whole lot of change through the long term forecast period with
ridging aloft and surface high pressure expected to dominate the
vast majority of the week ahead. More active weather expected to
remain to our north and west heading late in the work week, perhaps
with a boundary slipping into northern Michigan on Saturday
providing low-end rain chances across parts of the forecast area.
Cooler, but still seasonable on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to
low 70s area-wide. Temps begin to rebound a bit on Thursday with
winds turning back out of the south. A more notable push of late
season warmth anticipated Friday into weekend with another round of
mid-70s to low 80s expected across much of northern Michigan. --
some 10-15 degrees above normal for early October. Given antecedent
dry conditions and potential for lower afternoon RHs through much of
the week ahead, at least some concern exists for elevated fire
danger days.
Not a ton of confidence heading into the weekend, but a boundary to
our north late this week may sag far enough south on Saturday to
bring scattered shower/storm chances. Higher potential for a more
notable boundary with additional rain chances and a return to
cooler/more fall-like temperatures early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Skies to remain largely clear through afternoon; a few mid/high
clouds (esp above 15kft) could drift in tonight. Will need to watch
for patchy fog again overnight, and have included this idea in the
tafs...with fog most likely between 6z and 13z, similar to last
night. Lake breezes this afternoon become generally light and
variable tonight, with some light land breezes possible. Winds
should begin to pick up and become more east/northeast late tonight
into Tuesday as a cold front swings in from northeast to southwest
in the morning. Not expecting rain with this attm, but think we have
a shot at some SCT020 along the front. Additionally, seeing signals
for a northeasterly 20-25kt jet around 900ft tonight and have
included this in the TAFs for CIU, PLN, and APN closer to the front.
Wind shift with height should be most notable at APN with light west
winds at the surface.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion