Port Lavaca, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

696
FXUS64 KCRP 032338
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Hazardous beach conditions this weekend with a medium chance for
  minor coastal flooding starting early Saturday morning. A Coastal
  Flood Advisory is in effect through 7AM Sunday.
- HIGH risk of rip currents tonight into Sunday morning.
  Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!"
- Low (20-30%) chance of showers and storms into the middle of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Subsidence from mid-to-upper-level ridging over Mexico will
dominate through early next week. Additionally, a weak mid-level
low over the Gulf continues to shift eastward, keeping the bulk of
deeper moisture displaced away from South Texas. As a result,
rain chances remain limited in the short term, though isolated
activity cannot be ruled out near the coast where higher moisture
occasionally interacts with the afternoon sea breeze and pockets
of PVA rotating around the backside of the low. The best chances
will stay offshore and along the immediate coast, but isolated to
scattered showers may spread inland by next week as onshore flow
strengthens. Afternoon PoPs will range from 20-30%, and while
PWATs are near normal for this time of year, slow moving
convection could still produce brief localized downpours.
Marine and coastal hazards will be the primary concern this
weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds and long swell periods
will lead to elevated seas and a persistent rip current risk. With
a full moon this weekend, astronomical high tides combined with
swell energy may result in minor coastal flooding with water
levels potentially approaching the dunes. Therefore, a Coastal
Flood Advisory and a HIGH risk of rip currents are in effect
through Sunday morning. Beachgoers should exercise caution, as
conditions could be hazardous!
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the low to
mid-90s across the region and upper 90s possible over the Brush
Country. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s inland to
the mid-70s near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas through this evening.
Later tonight, light patchy fog will likely impact VCT with MVFR
vsby between 08-14Z, less likely over ALI, and guidance is showing a
brief instance of MVFR cigs over COT. Conditions will improve to VFR
by 15Z and be followed by a low (20-30%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon, as hinted at in the PROB30s
over the coastal terminals. East-southeasterly winds around 10 knots
now will become light and variable overnight, then return in the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A moderate to fresh east-northeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will
persist through the weekend. This uptick in winds will lead to an
increase in wave heights, with seas of 4-5 feet expected by this
evening, creating borderline SCEC/SCA conditions. The easterly
wind component, elevated seas, and long swell periods will lead to
an increased rip current risk. With a full moon this weekend,
astronomical high tides combined with the above mentioned features
may result in minor coastal flooding as well with water levels
potentially approaching the dunes. Winds will decrease to a gentle
to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday morning and shift back to an
east-southeasterly flow. Low to medium (20-60%) rain and
thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Saturday night
before decreasing to low (20-40%) rain chances beginning Sunday
into the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 30-35%
across the Rio Grande Plains today. Moisture increases Saturday into
next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy
Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and
20 ft winds and increased moisture will limit the fire risk.
Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low (20-30%)
shower and thunderstorm chances today continuing daily into the
middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the
Coastal Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  89  73  89 /  10  20  20  30
Victoria          67  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  40
Laredo            71  94  71  94 /  10   0   0  10
Alice             69  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  30
Rockport          74  89  75  88 /  10  20  30  30
Cotulla           70  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
Navy Corpus       78  86  77  86 /  20  30  40  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion