Ponce De Leon, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

486
FXUS63 KSGF 040745
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the
  weekend.
- 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday through
  Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to mainly be sparse and
  light.
- Some uncertainty still exists in the pattern for the end of
  next week, though models are starting to favor near to above
  normal temperatures to persist.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows widespread dry air
across the central and southern Plains states as a positively-
tilted shortwave ridge axis stretches from southern TX, up
through MO, and into the Great Lakes region. Southeast of the
ridge axis is a weak and subtle shortwave trough that had slowly
moved through our region the past few days. Both of these
features fall under a large-scale ridge situated over the
central and eastern CONUS. West of the ridge axis is a potent
shortwave trough over NV.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend:
The ridge axis over the area will continue to allow clear skies
and above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s today
and Sunday. This continues our streak of temperatures 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also continue to be
mild in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Slightly breezier conditions and drier air this weekend:
The aforementioned shortwave trough will rotate NE and eject off
the Rockies into the northern Plains. This will force a surface
low pressure system over ND/SD, which will tighten the surface
pressure gradient across the southern Plains. As such, we can
expect slightly breezier conditions this weekend with sustained
winds at 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph at times, especially
west of Highway 65.
Additionally, the increased wind speeds along with surface high
pressure departing to the east should promote mixdown of the
mid-level dry air. This should decrease afternoon relative
humidity values into the 30-40% range today and Sunday. Pattern
recognition along with some members of the HREF suggest
localized areas could see values below 30% (HREF gives a 20-40%
chance of this for some locations within our forecast area).
This, combined with breezy winds, may introduce a very minor
fire weather risk to localized areas that are especially
impacted by drought-like conditions and browning fall fuels.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday:
After the shortwave trough ejects through into Canada, the
pattern that remains is a positively-tilted trough from CA up to
ND, with the jet stream oriented along that axis. This will
produce a baroclinic zone to the surface in the form of a cold
front stretching from the TX/OK panhandles NE to the northern
Great Lakes. This front is expected to be stalled Monday and
Tuesday as the upper-level jet sits in its place. This means
rain chances along the front should stay north and west of our
area. This will also allow temperatures to stay warm in the
middle 80s Monday and Tuesday with lows persisting in the middle
50s to lower 60s.
Meanwhile, a weak mid-level disturbance is progged to lift north
out of the Gulf, advecting better moisture into our area.
Increased moisture will allow for at least weak instability and
lift from the mid-level disturbance will bring a 20-30% chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. The
scattered nature of the precipitation will keep rainfall totals
rather sparse and light with some areas receiving no rain at
all. Of course, any area that sees a thunderstorm will see
locally higher amounts, but flooding is not an expected threat.
The stalled cold front is then forecast to surge through the
area Tuesday night as the shortwave trough finally shifts
eastward. The timing of the frontal passage overnight along with
synoptic ascent staying north of the area will keep rain chances
low (

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion