Plainville, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

823
FXUS63 KGID 031752
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few areas of fog is possible this morning through 10AM across
  some mainly lower lying areas.
- Above normal temperatures continue today and Saturday (mid 80s
  to low 90s highs) with southerly winds increasing through
  Saturday.
- Gusts up to 40-50 MPH are likely Saturday afternoon and evening.
  This will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat.
- A few (non-severe) storms may cross into the area from the
  west Saturday night (10-25% chance) with even better storm
  chances Sunday (50-75%) and Monday (30-60%) afternoon/night. The
  best storm chances Sunday/Monday will be concentrated towards
  the southeast of the area.
- A cold frontal passage Sunday morning will bring cooler
  temperatures for the first part of next week. (upper 50s to
  lower 70s MON-WED). &&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Today...
A few areas of fog will be possible this morning across some mainly
lower lying areas. Any fog that develops should be cleared by 10AM.
Temperature-wise, another anomalously warm day is expected as
ridging remains the predominate pattern aloft. Highs this afternoon
should range between the upper 80s to low 90s, around 15-20 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Gusty 15-20MPH winds today out
of the south may gust as high as 25MPH to 30MPH in the afternoon
hours. Skies should be mostly clear with no chance for precipitation
in the forecast today. Pattern wise, a Western U.S. trough will
continue to close in on the Rockies, approaching the Central Plains
Saturday.
Saturday and Sunday...
The aforementioned trough will help drive surface pressure falls
(cyclogenesis) to the northwest of the area Saturday. This surface
trough of lower pressure will help energize the southerly winds,
prompting sustained winds speeds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 40-
50MPH during the day and evening on Saturday. Gusty winds may
continue into the early nighttime hours. For more information on the
fire weather potential for Saturday, please refer to the fire
weather section below.
Highs Saturday are expected to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s. A
cold front emerging out of the upper plains Saturday evening will
eventually push down the plains and across the area Sunday morning.
A few storms breaking out just ahead of the front could reach our
western edge Saturday night, however, chances remain on the lower
end for now (10-25%). Though higher resolution guidance from the
HRRR/NAMNEST show a slightly stronger precipitation signal compared
to the global models (GFS/ECMWF), the general consensus is for
storms to be deteriorating in size and intensity by the time the
cluster of storms arrives to the area overnight Saturday. The
potential for precipitation all depends on the speed of the front
and how well the limited instability field can sustain these storms.
The front on Sunday will drop temperates a few degrees, up to 10-15
degrees lower from Saturday for our most far northwestern areas. A
majority of south central Nebraska will remain in the upper 70s to
low 80s and up to the mid 80s for our north central Kansas areas.
Winds behind the front will swing out of the North for Sunday
between 10-15MPH and only gusting up to 20MPH. Southerly gusts in
the morning ahead of the front could still gust as high as 25-30MPH.
The best precipitation chances for the weekend will come Sunday
afternoon/night. Scattered storms and a few showers look likely to
redevelop along the frontal convergence zone. Given the boundaries
location off to the southeast by then, the best precipitation chances
(50-75%) are reserved for mainly our southeastern half of the area.
The convective environment does not look conducive enough to support
any severe storms, though a stronger storm or two can`t be completely
ruled out.
Monday and Beyond...
Another round of storms look possible again Monday night across the
same mainly southeastern portions of the area. Coverage and
precipitation amounts are not expected to exceed Sunday nights
potential (mainly only 30-60% chances). Most areas may only receive
0.25-5" of precipitation through Monday night with the luckiest
southeastern winners seeing up to just over 1" of precipitation. Most
places north and west of the Tri-Cities should receive less than
0.25".
Temperatures Monday will be notably cooler behind the front with
highs only expected to peak in the upper 50s for our far northwestern
fringes up to the low 70s for our far southeastern fringes. The vast
majority of the area will fall somewhere inbetween the 60s. These
cooler temperatures look to stick around through Wednesday,
followed by a mini warmup near the end of next week. Higher pressure
will build back in after the trough and frontal passage over the
weekend. A shortwave trough passage during the middle of next week
will need to be monitored closely, as it could stir up a few more
storms on Wednesday (30-40% chance).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Main concern will be low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight, then
strong Srly winds during the day on Saturday.
VFR expected through the period with little to no cloud cover.
Winds will be breezy out of the SSE today, with sustained speeds
around 12-17kt and gusts near 25kt. Sfc winds will remain
elevated overnight, but likely not high enough to preclude LLWS
at both terminals, thanks to strong 45-50kt LLJ. Expect LLWS to
be around most of the overnight, from around 02Z to 14Z. The LLJ
will mix out/down to the surface by mid to late Sat AM,
resulting in windy conditions for the rest of the day. Sustained
winds of 20-25kt and gusts 30-35kt (possibly higher) are
forecast for both terminals. Confidence: High.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The seasonably warm temperatures Saturday mixed with strong
southerly winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns.
Conditions currently look top fall just shy of critical conditions as
some moisture will likely be transported up with the southerlies
(50s to low 60s dewpoints), keeping min RH values between 25-45%
(generally driest towards the west). Grasses are still in the
process of curing/drying, though dry cropland and harvest operations
could still result in some ignitions. Because of the borderline
humidity and fuels, fire weather headlines are not expected at this
time. Nevertheless, outdoor burning is not recommended.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Stump

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion