Pl Grove, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS64 KBMX 010521
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
High pressure will strengthen over the area with a pressure
gradient setting up through the short term. Dry conditions and
mildly breezy conditions will be the dominant features. Flow will
prevail from the east and northeast, with drier air filtering
into the state. RH values will dip into the 30s for parts of the
state each afternoon, with high temperatures cooling slightly from
the upper 80s today to mid 80s tomorrow.
24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
The high will continue over the state Friday and Saturday,
keeping dry weather and cooler temperatures each day. Winds will
remain out of the east and northeast, breezy each day. By Sunday,
a trough approaches the southeast US, with the high weakening and
moving east. With flow around the high, this puts central Alabama
with southeasterly to easterly flow that transitions to have a
southerly component by the beginning of the workweek. Moisture
will advect into the state with a low to moderate chance for
diurnal convection Sunday through Tuesday. There is some
uncertainty as to how much moisture will return and how quickly,
but there is general consensus for now that there will be at least
scattered convection, higher coverage in the southeast closer to
the moisture advection.
With dry conditions for several days, drought could easily become
worse in many areas. High temperatures will hover in the 80s
through the extended, with the coolest lows expected Friday night,
with values as low as the upper 50s.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high
pressure and winds from the east and northeast bring drier air to
the state. Models are trying to bring in fog through the early
morning today, though with cloud cover expected, confidence is low
on fog being able to development. Left mention out of each TAF for
now and will amend if needed.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, with minRH values falling into
the low to mid-30s for many areas Wednesday through Friday.
Given the sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no real
moisture return is expected until late weekend and into early next
week with only isolated rain chances beginning around Sunday.
Because of this, drought conditions will remain ongoing, with
additional expansion possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  87  59  83 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    63  86  61  81 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  88  64  85 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  90  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      65  89  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      64  86  62  80 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  88  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        64  85  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion