Pine Hills, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

442
FXUS62 KMLB 271921
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for coastal portions of east-
  central Florida as Tropical Depression Nine organizes over the
  Bahamas, then moves parallel to the Florida coast late Sunday
  through Monday
- Dangerous beach and marine conditions begin Sunday evening,
  continuing through at least midweek, as incoming long-period
  swells and persistent north to northeast winds lead to life-
  threatening rip currents and beach erosion
- Rounds of scattered showers to increase as T.D. Nine makes its
  closest approach Sunday night into Monday; locally heavy
  rainfall is possible along the immediate coast
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Now-Tonight...A surface front continues to slowly approach the
area this afternoon as Tropical Depression Nine slowly organizes
near and just south of the Bahamas. Locally, cloud cover along and
north of Interstate 4 has kept debris showers ongoing into the
early afternoon, while sufficient instability has sparked showers
and scattered storms along the Treasure Coast. Apparent on both
RAP and satellite analysis is an area of weak subsidence that
stretches across the central portion of our area. Coverage of
showers and storms will likely remain isolated to scattered
through the evening, with a particular focus from the
Cape/Melbourne southward. Overnight, guidance maintains showers
chances along the immediate coast, especially Cape Canaveral to
the Treasure Coast. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible in
persistent bands, if they were to setup in these areas. Farther
inland, predominantly drier conditions are forecast as
temperatures settle into the mid 70s.
Sunday-Monday...Our attention turns toward Tropical Depression
Nine tomorrow into early next week, as the current forecast track
takes it northward from the Bahamas, parallel to the east-central
Florida coast. On Sunday morning, showers and even a few rumbles
of thunder could be ongoing from Cape Canaveral southward, as the
far outer influence of T.D. Nine interact with a stalled boundary
over central Florida. Clouds will be on the increase through the
day Sunday as deeper moisture begins to spread northwestward.
Beach conditions are forecast to deteriorate Sunday afternoon,
then more rapidly Sunday night into early Monday, as the tropical
system becomes more organized on its way northward. A high risk of
rip currents is in place for area beaches, and breaking waves of
6 to 10 feet, combined with long-period swells, will create
dangerous surf zone conditions. It is highly advised to remain out
of the water! Additionally, long-duration beach erosion,
especially Cape Canaveral northward, is anticipated beginning
Monday morning and continuing for several more days.
Breezy to gusty northeast winds unfold during the day Sunday with
windier conditions forecast on Monday as the center of T.D. Nine
passes by to our east. Winds will veer north-northwesterly as the
center moves north of the local Atlantic waters later on Monday,
allowing for a strong, southward-flowing longshore current to
develop at the beaches. Eventually, winds do turn offshore Tuesday
morning but remain breezy to gusty. As of the 11 AM advisory, the
east-central Florida coast has a 20-30% chance of experiencing
tropical-storm-force winds on Monday. Rainfall amounts are in
question, depending on how close the system passes to our coast.
However, accumulated amounts between now and Tuesday morning could
approach 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 5 inches
along the barrier islands. Residents and visitors should keep up-
to-date with the latest weather and hazards information at
hurricanes.gov and weather.gov/melbourne, as slight changes in the
storm`s track will have implications on realized impacts
(especially at the immediate coast).
Tuesday-Friday (modified previous)...As T.D. Nine moves farther
away from Florida, a broad mid-level trough remains situated
across the southeastern U.S. through the end of the forecast
period. Drier air lingers in the wake of T.D. Nine, resulting in
lower rain chances through next week (20-50%). Storms are less
likely Tuesday and Wednesday but re-enter the realm of possibility
from Thursday onward. A cooling trend is also forecast through
the period, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s to low 90s
falling into the low to mid 80s later in the week. Overnight lows
will hover in the low to mid 70s, perhaps reaching the upper 60s
in a few spots.
Despite the departure of T.D. Nine, there will likely still be
lingering coastal and marine impacts locally. Persistent
northeasterly to easterly winds will make it hard for seas to
subside, with additional long-period swells traveling toward the
coast from Major Hurricane Humberto through next week. Seas
remain elevated around 12+ feet across the offshore waters, with
breaking waves along the coast of at least 5 to 8 feet. A high
risk of rip currents through the extended period will be likely,
especially if the forecasted wave heights continue to stay
consistent. Residents and visitors will need to continue to
monitor coastal and marine impacts even after T.D. Nine departs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Through Tonight...2 to 4 foot seas and 8-14 kt easterly winds will
last from this evening into tonight as moisture gradually
increases over the local Atlantic. Scattered showers and embedded
storms are forecast, especially over the Gulf Stream, as a front
stalls across the northern waters.
Boating conditions worsen on Sunday as Tropical Depression Nine
organizes and moves northward, eventually paralleling the east
central Florida coast on Monday. Northeast winds on Sunday
increase to 15 to 25 knots, becoming northerly on Monday, 25 to
35 knots. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely over the offshore
waters and at least a portion of the nearshore waters Monday as
T.D. Nine makes its closest pass to the area. Seas quickly respond
by climbing to 7-11 ft (nearshore) and 8-15 ft (offshore) by
daybreak Monday morning. These building seas continue north and
westward in time as T.D. Nine progresses northward, forecast to
strengthen to a Tropical Storm. High coverage of showers and
a few embedded storms is anticipated, especially closer to the
system`s center.
Poor to dangerous boating conditions are anticipated to persist
across the local waters through much of next week. Seas will be
slow to subside behind T.D. Nine for two reasons; continued
northeast to east winds, as well as long period swells
approaching the local waters from distant Major Hurricane
Humberto. Seas of 8-12+ feet are forecast to persist (highest
offshore), along with wind speeds of at least 15 to 20 knots.
Slightly lower coverage of showers and storms is anticipated mid
week, though activity is still likely to remain scattered across
the local waters.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Light rain is observed near, north, and west of I-4 with VCSH
included at the interior east central Florida terminals early this
afternoon. Have kept TSRA TEMPOs at these terminals late this
afternoon, but there is decreasing confidence in lightning.
Further south, scattered showers and lightning storms have
developed along the Treasure Coast, and TSRA TEMPOs are in place
at VRB/FPR through 19Z. Onshore moving showers will be possible
along the coast through the overnight period and will maintain
VCSH. Models signal heavier bands of showers could set up on the
Treasure Coast into early Sunday morning and will need to monitor
if TEMPOs may be needed with future TAF packages. Southwest winds
remain less than 10 kts today, shifting onshore with the east
coast sea breeze. Winds shift out of the northeast tomorrow
increasing and becoming gusty in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  85  74  84 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  89  74  87 /  40  70  30  50
MLB  76  86  76  86 /  50  70  50  50
VRB  75  86  75  87 /  50  70  50  50
LEE  73  89  74  87 /  30  50  20  40
SFB  74  87  74  86 /  40  70  40  50
ORL  75  88  74  86 /  40  70  30  50
FPR  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  50  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Law

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion