Penns, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

659
FXUS64 KJAN 230901 CCA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The primary concern for this forecast will be with the potential
for marginally severe storms from late Tue night through
Wednesday. Otherwise, significant weather hazard impacts are not
anticipated.
For today through this evening, modest strengthening of the
southeast CONUS ridge will tend to deflect the more favorable
convective environment currently supporting considerable shower
and thunderstorm coverage well to our north, and this will keep the
forecast area mostly free of convective rainfall. This will also
support another day of anomalously hot temperatures with highs
reaching the mid 90s (near 10 deg F above normal).
For late tonight through Wednesday, as a shortwave trough digs
southward through the MS Valley region, increased deep layer flow
and cyclonic flow will support the development of organized storms
to our northwest ahead of an approaching cold front. These storms
will likely impact northwest portions of the area just prior to
daybreak, and they may be accompanied by a few strong to
marginally severe wind gusts. As has been discussed, the initial
round of storms would diminish during the morning and then
potentially redevelop and intensify over the southeast half of the
area during the afternoon. Overall, the combination of weak height
falls, moderate levels of instability, and at least marginal levels
of deep layer wind shear, should support a marginal risk of severe
weather that persists into the early evening. In terms of rainfall,
locally heavy downpours could create some minor ponding issues, but
the recent dry weather should limit any flash flood concerns.
Late week through the weekend: Going into Thursday, the threat
for severe weather will end, but persistent cyclonic flow
associated with trough passage will support additional rainfall
over eastern and southeast portions of the area. The trough will
shift east and be followed by dry and milder air as we go into
Friday and weekend, but the upper level pattern becomes less
predictable early next week as the trough may cutoff and meander
per latest global model guidance. In any case, it appears
temperatures will be near typical values for the end of September.
/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period for all sites.
There will be lingering upper level cloud coverage at and above
20,000ft, with light mostly variable winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  90  70 /  10  10  70  80
Meridian      93  70  91  70 /   0   0  40  70
Vicksburg     93  74  89  70 /  10  10  80  80
Hattiesburg   95  72  94  73 /  10   0  40  60
Natchez       93  72  90  70 /  20  10  70  80
Greenville    93  72  84  68 /  20  20  90  60
Greenwood     93  72  86  68 /  20  20  80  80
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/OAJ/

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion