800 FXUS62 KJAX 270038 AFDJAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 838 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Main Storm Hazards: Gusty Winds & Brief Flooding Rainfall
- Tropical Development Near the Bahamas Expected Tonight into the Weekend - Higher confidence of local marine & surf zone hazards Monday & Tuesday. - Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today
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.UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Primary updates to the forecast this evening was with respect to PoPs, with just some light stratiform rain and a few embedded showers out over interior areas as of 830 PM. Hi-res guidance is in pretty good agreement that another "wave" of showers and perhaps a few t`storms will fill in from southwest to northeast out ahead of a cold front overnight and into the morning hours, with some patchy to areas of fog also possible inland tonight in between/outside any rainfall as well. Lows in the upper 60s to mod 70s will be common tonight.
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.NEAR TERM... Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Bouts of showers and thunderstorms will pass over the forecast area ahead of the advancing cold front, moving from west to east, throughout today and into tonight with the heaviest amounts of rainfall expected to occur over southeast Georgia with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall having been set for Georgia and into portions of northeast Florida. Rainfall amounts may reach up to over 2 inches in some areas for southeast Georgia and into the Suwannee River Valley with the primary threat from stronger storms today being gusty down burst winds. High temperatures today will reach up into the mid to upper 80s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower 90s for most of northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s over southeast Georgia and into the lower 70s for northeast Florida.
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.SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A trough continues to dig across the southeastern CONUS this weekend, with its associated cold front shifting across the northern SE GA counties during the morning hours on Saturday and towards the southern part of the CWA by the afternoon before it begins to slow and stall by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers and storms will continue to move across the area as the front shifts from west to east into Saturday evening. With any storms that do develop, strong to marginal severe storms will be possible, but weak to modest diurnal heating, weak mean flow and shear, will likely keep most storms below severe levels. Increased cloud cover will keep temperature highs only reaching into the mid to upper 80s, with the warmer temperatures along the southern portions of the CWA on Saturday. Come Sunday, chances of precipitation will be lower compared to Saturday as the frontal boundary will be stalled over the area, with the relatively higher chances ahead of the stalled front, with drier air behind the boundary. Temperature highs on Sunday will be in the 80s, with warmer temperatures across inland locations behind the frontal boundary. Overnight lows for both Saturday and Sunday will be primarily be in the upper 60s over the Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL and SE GA, while the lower 70s for the rest of NE FL.
At this time, NHC currently expects AL94 becoming a Tropical Depression during the upcoming weekend as it nears the central and northwest Bahamas, with the system trending to move towards the southeastern states by late Sunday/ early Monday Morning. The likely impacts for the local area will focus on our Marine and Surf zones as the system looks to trek parallel to the local coast prior to a potential shift towards the west. Potential hazards include strengthening northeast winds, building seas, frequent rip currents, rough surf, and potential tidal flooding impacts. Looking inland, scattered showers and storms will be possible extending from the coast and towards US-301 on Monday, higher chances along coastal locations.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
By Tuesday, current guidance has the AL94 moving towards the north of the local area somewhere along the Carolinas coast line Monday Night/Tuesday Morning. Otherwise, a more zonal pattern aloft will begin to develop into midweek, which will allow for drier air into the area as winds shift to become northwesterly by Tuesday and Wednesday. Only Scattered chances of showers and storms is expected through midweek at this time. By the later half of the upcoming week, a ridge along the eastern seaboard will look to keep things breezy along the local waters with a more northeasterly type of event developing sometime during the back half of the upcoming week.
Temperatures trend near to possibly slightly below average Tuesday through Friday pending how this pattern evolves.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 813 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Evening convection has come to end across the area, with just a few light SHRA possible through about the early morning hours as well as MVFR ceilings. Main concern over the next 6 to 12 hours will be some areas of FG and low stratus that may develop given the levels of low level moisture in place. Have dropped only VQQ and GNV to MVFR with TEMPO IFR at this time, though brief MVFR vsbys and/or ceilings are possible at sites such as JAX/CRG/SSI - though confidence not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Persistent period of SHRA appears likely around early to mid morning as well which has been highlighted fairly consistently in hi-res guidance, though should not have significant operational impacts outside of some MVFR ceilings already expected to be occurring. Diurnal convection is likely once again tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances of TSRA being mainly for coastal sites.
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.MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Increased storminess today as a front approaches from the west with continued southerly winds. The front lingers over the area tonight into Saturday with continued waves of storms. The front moves south of the local waters Saturday. Northeast winds increase Sunday and Monday as high pressure strengthens north of the region and a potential tropical system nears the Bahamas. Building seas and increasing winds are forecast to reach Advisory levels by Monday as the tropical system tracks north of the Bahamas. An extended duration of Advisory conditions is likely next week due to elevated winds and seas. Local interests should monitor the latest forecasts on this potential tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane Center.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 85 66 86 / 60 40 20 30 SSI 71 83 72 84 / 50 60 40 40 JAX 71 86 70 87 / 40 60 30 50 SGJ 72 86 72 86 / 40 60 50 60 GNV 71 88 69 90 / 40 60 20 30 OCF 72 88 71 89 / 30 70 20 40
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.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
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NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion