Pearson, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

741
FXUS62 KJAX 231739
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday all Local Beaches
- Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River South of Racy Point
- Summer-Like Weather through Friday  Near Record Highs.
- Daily Inland Heat Indices 100-105F.
- Daily Isolated Thunderstorms
- Atlantic Tropical Systems  Monitor hurricanes.gov
- Marine & Surf Zone Hazard Potential Early Next Week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms will be
present this evening south of Gainesville and St. Augustine, with
activity decreasing after sunset. Tonight will be mild with a calm
breeze and mostly clear skies, aiding fog development overnight
into the early morning hours. Generally fog will be patchy, but
visibility will possibly drop below 1 mile at times over portions
of inland southeast Georgia.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Convection expected to build in association with the diurnal sea
breeze boundary and areas of convergence, with a majority of the
convection occurring west of the I-10 corridor. Showers and storms
developing over northeast Florida are expected to be more isolated
on Wednesday and then following a similar but more widespread
pattern on Thursday. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday
will rise into the lower 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s
along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into
the upper 60s and lower 70s for inland areas and in the lower to
mid 70s for areas along the shoreline. Heat index values during
this period will likely rise to values of 100 to 105 degrees
during peak daytime heating during this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and storms will build across the forecast area on Friday
ahead of an advancing frontal boundary with the frontal boundary
stalling over the Florida peninsula by the weekend with bouts of
convection continuing through into the beginning of next week.
High temperatures through the weekend and into the beginning of
next week will drop down to be closer to the seasonal average,
with overnight low temperatures similarly falling to near average
levels.
Latest extended forecast models are showing better consistency
with not just an eastern CONUS trough this weekend, but a closed
500 mb low in the base of the trough forming across the deep south
Sunday, then possibly retrograding Monday. How this mid level
trough and potential closed low evolve and possibly migrate early
next week will help influence the eventual track of a potential
tropical system progged to be tracking NNW near the Bahamas this
weekend. At this time, most ensemble members keep the center of
the system east of the local Atlantic coast early next week. These
solutions support potential marine and surf zone hazards early
next week, including building seas, frequent rip currents, rough
surf and potential tidal flooding impacts.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast guidance from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
MVFR ceilings are currently impacting SSI, and will likely
continue for the next few hours, while other sites are VFR.
Isolated showers will be near GNV this afternoon and evening, but
confidence on thunder was not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this time. Tonight, another round of fog is expected to impact
at least VQQ and GNV.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Today, winds become more easterly and lighter as weak high pressure
reforms more to the east northeast through this evening. Wednesday
into Thursday, high pressure will extend across south Florida as a
surface front approaches from the west-northwest. An increase in
showers are expected Friday into Saturday as the front arrives into
the area waters bringing elevated southerly winds near exercise
caution conditions.
Rip currents:
High rip current risk will persist through at least Wednesday for
the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beaches as onshore
winds and long wave periods continue.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Hydrology: Peak water levels have been steadily rising at Satsuma
the last 2 days towards 1.5 ft MHHW, so despite PETSS not very
strong on a signal for higher water levels, have placed a coastal
flood advisory for eastern Putnam county as easterly winds help
to prevent the overall drainage of the lower St Johns river
through Wednesday evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Daily record highs and high minimum temperatures for the next
few days are below:
DATE     9/23     9/24     9/25     Normals
JAX      95/1925  94/2019  96/2019  High: 86
         78/1933  78/1951  76/1930  Low: 69
CRG      91/2016  93/2019  95/2019  High: 85
         79/2005  77/2017  76/1998  Low: 71
GNV      97/1925  95/1997  96/1931  High: 87
         75/1933  75/1998  74/2010  Low: 68
AMG      94/2010  95/2019  98/1961  High: 86
         76/2000  74/2000  74/1988  Low: 65
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  93  70  92 /   0  10   0  30
SSI  72  87  74  88 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  71  92  73  93 /   0  20  10  40
SGJ  73  90  73  91 /   0  20  10  40
GNV  71  94  71  92 /  10  40  10  40
OCF  72  93  73  91 /  10  40  10  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ137.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion