Payne Gap, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

956
FXUS63 KJKL 261845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
245 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few light showers will be possible today and Saturday, mainly
  for areas near the Virginia border. Expect drier weather and
  more sunshine to return on Sunday.
- We are monitoring the evolution of a tropical system.
  Confidence is low on the timing and impacts from this system
  across eastern Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Reviewing the 15Z surface analysis, the frontal boundaries that
impacted the area earlier this week have now tracked eastward off
the Atlantic seaboard. However, a lingering surface low pressure
center remains, positioned south of the JKL CWA and centered over
northern Georgia. Locally, the JKL CWA is currently under the
influence of weak surface high pressure.
Through the remainder of the day and the rest of the forecast
period, the slow-moving upper-level trough, which was responsible
for the convective activity earlier in the week, will continue to
influence the region as it becomes more neutral and eventually quasi-
stationary. This trough is expected to persist throughout the
period. Favorable upper-level divergence, combined with forecast
streamlines showing elevated 1000 mb to 500 mb RH values, indicates
optimal moisture transport fetch of Gulf moisture into the
southeastern portions of the CWA. This combination will favor these
locations for the highest probabilities of afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Conversely, northerly flow along the western
periphery of the trough will advect drier air into the northwestern
portions of the CWA, thereby limiting the potential for afternoon
convection in those areas. Any shower or thunderstorm that does
develop will rapidly dissipate toward sunset. Overnight clearing is
expected each night, potentially leading to locally dense valley fog.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by low-end
precipitation chances, primarily across the southeastern portions of
the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s
to low 80s, with overnight lows falling into the mid-to-upper 50s to
near 60.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
The main theme for the extended period is uncertainty and low
confidence on the evolution of the tropical systems specifically the
developing tropical formation over the southern Bahamas. This system
is forecast to become a tropical depression soon and move north to
northwest into the Atlantic Ocean. The ensemble analysis of shows a
much more muted system then the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.
There is also big differences between the deterministic GFS and
ECMWF on the track, timing and strength of this low.  Phasing of
this tropical storm with the persistent but weakening upper low over
the southeast United States and Appalachians is a big question.
For Sunday, ensemble analysis and deterministic models show the
upper trough closing off over the southeast United States/Southern
Appalachians. Northerly flow aloft will dry the area-mass over the
region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far
eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For next week (especially Tuesday through Friday), weakening upper
low over the southeast United States/Southern Appalachians remains
cut-off. The evolution of this upper trough/low will play a major
role in how the tropical system affect the central and southern
Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track, timing and
impacts over east Kentucky.
Mean ensemble QPF depicts only light amounts over east Kentucky
during this period, but again there is low confidence on rainfall
potential through much of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Terminals are slowly starting to recover from this morning`s dense
fog and low stratus. All terminals are MVFR and will slowly
improve to VFR through the afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible this afternoon but should remain
clear of the 5 TAF sites. Showers/storms are forecast to dissipate
toward the overnight, followed by the development of locally dense
river valley fog. Fog is forecast to stay largely out of the TAF
sites but can`t rule out fog leaking into a site. Lastly, light
and variable winds will prevail through the TAF window.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion