Paxton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

388
FXUS64 KSHV 240429
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1129 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
   impacting the Four State Region today before diminishing in
   coverage and intensity by late afternoon into the evening.
- While strong thunderstorms will continue to be possible today,
   a severe threat cannot be ruled out. However, any damaging
   wind and/or hail threat may be more isolated in nature.
- There may be an isolated flash flood threat as well as we go
   through the day but widespread flooding is not likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold front late this Tuesday Evening was located just west of the
DFW Metroplex to just northwest of Fort Smith, Arkansas with this
frontal boundary continuing to make slow and steady progress south
and east. Convection for the most part as been oriented in advance
of this frontal boundary along a pre-frontal trough that was
observed across the Middle Red River Valley of N TX, SE OK and SW
AR.
Believe the severe weather threat (or at least the more widespread
severe weather threat) should end prior to sunrise (if not sooner)
with the frontal boundary by sunrise generally in the vicinity of
where the pre-frontal trough axis exists currently. Convection
should increase in coverage post sunrise with the arrival of the
frontal boundary and the uptick in convective coverage will be
substantiated by the upper forcing in advance of a vigorous upper
trough that will pivot through the Southern Plains today, moving
into the Ohio and Tenn Valleys by this evening and tonight.
Moisture in advance of this trough is plentiful and while some
locally heavy downpours will be possible today given the forcing
in association with the upper trough, an isolated flooding threat
will exist, especially where we get some training of storms today.
However, given how dry our region has been and with Flash Flood
guidance numbers very high, feel like we can take a good rain
without any widespread impacts. Thus, a Flood Watch will not be
necessary with today`s convection.
Will end pops from northwest to southeast this evening and
convection may end earlier in the day across our far northwest
zones. Did hold onto pops across our southeast and eastern zones
for Thursday given the fact that the upper trough axis tries to
cutoff across the Tenn Valley with at least some upper forcing
still apparent across our far southern and eastern zones.
Otherwise, the remainder of the 7-Day Forecast becomes a
temperature one as we should be able to finally kick the 90s to
the curb for a few days, at least through Saturday, even through
we may approach the lower 90s again by Sunday into Monday of next
week and continue that warming trend through the middle of next
week. Going to love the cooler temperatures at night with this
post frontal airmass with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s across most of our region Friday Night through Sunday
Night before that warming trend at night commences later in the
week.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail for now but that
will be short-lived as strong to severe convection advances into
our airspace this evening through the overnight hours and much of
Wednesday. This convection will result in rapidly deteriorating
flight categories with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys expected with the
strongest showers and thunderstorms. In addition, more widespread
low cigs will follow as the associated cold front continues to
advance SE through our airspace over the next 24 hours. Some minor
improvement in flight categories may come very late in the period,
but still likely will remain MVFR at best with winds veering from
the S/SW to the W/NW with fropa as speeds generally range between
6-12 kts with much higher gusts possible invof convection.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Spotter activation for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms
and flooding cannot be ruled out during the daytime hours today with this
threat diminishing quickly during the evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  84  68  85 /  50  90  30  10
MLU  74  86  68  86 /  10  90  40  20
DEQ  69  82  61  81 /  70  40  10  10
TXK  73  83  65  84 /  70  70  10  10
ELD  70  82  63  83 /  60  90  20  20
TYR  74  81  65  82 /  60  80  10   0
GGG  73  82  65  83 /  60  90  20  10
LFK  74  88  67  87 /  10  80  50  10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion