Pawnee, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS64 KLCH 220534
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the region
today and again Wednesday providing continued relief to abnormally
dry conditions.
- A cold front will push through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier
and somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday
evening through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A couple of small showers continue to develop near the
coast and offshore early this morning aided by an upper level
shortwave axis bisecting the region. This axis will push slowly east
through the day taking upper level convective support with it. Even
so, a very moist low and mid level atmosphere combined with daytime
heating, will be enough to produce another round of showers and
thunderstorms from late this morning through early evening before
diminishing around sunset. Another round of diurnally driven
convection is expected Tuesday with a brief period of zonal flow
aloft between the departing shortwave and an upper low diving south
out of Canada.
Jones
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper low will eject east across the southern plains
Wednesday pushing a cold front through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Scattered to widespread convection is likely to
precede the frontal boundary by several hours from Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Temperatures and dewpoints behind
the front will be noticably cooler with afternoon highs Friday
through the weekend in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows and
dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Jones
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light, variable winds and VFR ceilings will prevail this morning.
Some light ground fog is already being observed at AEX and this
will likely continue through approximately 13Z this morning. The
lingering effects of a departing shortwave trof axis and daytime
heating will provide support for another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms with a few storms initializing around
sunrise and activity peaking in coverage from early to late
afternoon before diminishing around sunset. Away from storms,
light southeasterly winds will prevail through the day.
Jones
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
coastal waters as well as the coastal lakes and bays today through
Wednesday. Outside of storms, onshore flow of 10-15 knots will
prevail through Wednesday evening. A cold front will push through
the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning turning
winds offshore through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the region again today and Tuesday driven by a departing
upper level disturbance and afternoon heating. Outside of storms,
light southeasterly winds will prevail with minimum RH values
ranging from 60-70% this afternoon and Tuesday. A cold front will
push through the region late Wednesday into early Thursday
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Northerly winds
behind the front on Thursday will bring noticably cooler and drier
air into the region Thursday through the weekend. The increased
rainfall this week should improve the abnormally dry conditions that
have developed across the region over the last couple of weeks.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  69  93  72 /  30  10  30  20
LCH  88  75  89  76 /  50  10  60  20
LFT  89  74  90  75 /  50  10  40  10
BPT  89  76  90  76 /  50  10  60  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion