653 FXUS64 KJAN 280537 AAA AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Disturbed weather over the Southeastern US this week could bring a chance for cooler weather and possible rain later this week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The upper-level weather pattern continues to look messy across the region heading into the new week. Initially, we have a closed low over the Baja Peninsula with approaching deep trough to its west, a trough over the US East Coast, and a ridge of high pressure over the Great Plains. A tropical low (now Tropical Depression Nine) is drifting northwest from Cuba to parallel the US Atlantic Coastline. It`s expected to interact with Hurricane Humberto to its east over the next few days, with latest projections from the National Hurricane Center keeping both systems over open waters east of the mainland.
Remnant energy from the Southeast US trough and the Southwest US trough look to become entangled in the collapsing ridge over the central US. Troughing aloft should be influential in the local weather patterns by midweek, though uncertain in exact impacts. Latest NBM guidance keeps a "dry" forecast in place for our forecast area, but the operational global models and components of their ensembles bring at least some light precip through the region with moisture and lift pivoting around upper-level troughing in our region mid to late week. It`s the kind of forecast where a 10% chance for rain on multiple days could focus into a slight chance for precip on one particular day as we narrow in on the details of this complex upper air pattern`s evolution. By late week, anticipate the evolving weather pattern to also bring us cooler temps to near or below normal by a few degrees. /NF/
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 66 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 67 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 64 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
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/NF/22
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion