Pamplico, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS62 KILM 051505
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1105 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our northeast will weaken by Tuesday as a cold
front approaches. Mild weather will return to normal behind the
front beginning Thursday, while the front itself only offers
minimal rain chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
As of 11:00 AM... Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown Wilmington
has expired but another one will likely be needed for this
evening`s high tide cycle.
As of 8:00 AM... Cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for the SC
beaches as water levels have fallen below minor flood thresholds
at Springmaid Pier. The Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown
Wilmington continues through 11AM.
As of 6:15 AM...Given radar trends across portions of northeast
SC, made a quick update to expand PoPs in area and time. QPF
will remain minimal through the morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure, surface and aloft, is situated across the Mid-
Atlantic region this morning, then the surface high will shift
offshore through tonight. A weak coastal trough will persist and
weak low-level speed convergence associated with this feature
will likely bring a few showers onshore. Expect most of any
showers to occur this morning, and initially south of Cape Fear.
Not much in the way of any significant QPF given the moisture
limitations noted with dry air in place above H85. The air-mass
will continue to moderate and high temperatures today will be
above normal, and with NEly flow tonight the lows tonight will
be above normal as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure centered off to the NE shifts farther
offshore early this week as flow aloft becomes somewhat more
zonal. A primarily dry forecast is still anticipated due to an
abundance of dry air aloft and lack of a large-scale forcing
mechanism, but there`s still a slight chance of a shower near
the coast sneaking onshore both days in the moist low-level
onshore flow, as depicted by some hiRES models. Temps near to
slightly above normal for early October...highs in the low/mid
80s with lows ranging through the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally benign weather this period with sfc high pressure
shifting even farther offshore and no major weather systems
anticipated. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday or
Wednesday night, but it still appears to be rather moisture-
starved especially with the lack of mid-level moisture, so PoPs
remain capped at 20-30%. Drier then for the remainder of the
week as sfc low pressure develops along the front but well
offshore in response to a digging upr-level trough. With the
weak CAA following the fropa, expect cooler temps...highs
Thursday through Saturday only in the mid 70s with lows in the
50s away from the immediate coast.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Plenty of high clouds over the area and SC affecting the SC
terminals. CIGs should remain above MVFR for KMYR, but farther
south there are some MVFR CIGs that have moved onshore near
KGGE where most of the shower activity will continue to move
onshore. Given high pressure to the north and the presence of a
coastal trough the light flow will veer to an Ely direction
during the day, then back to a NEly direction tonight.
nocturnally.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May
have some patchy fog during the early morning into the first
half of next week. Low rain chances return around midweek as a
cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight...High pressure to the north will gradually
shift offshore allowing an Ely fetch to focus on the adjacent
coastal waters. A weak coastal trough will also continue helping
to keep NEly winds in place closer to the coast. The strongest
winds associated with this large fetch on the south-side of the
high will remain south of the ILM waters. Still dealing with
residual 11-13 second swells though the power has diminished
compared to yesterday. The 5-7 sec waves from the NEly fetch
continue to dominant the wave spectrum. Marginal Small Craft
conditions are expected across the outer coastal waters off Cape
Fear, and the southeast portion of the southern marine zone
given exposure to the NE-Ely fetch. Conditions off Horry (and
nearshore Brunswick are a little more sheltered) thus no is
advisory needed for the Horry waters at this time. Widely
scattered showers are expected across the waters, especially
this morning as the low-level steering has veered to an Elly
direction.
Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions Monday through
Wednesday as seas will be a bit lower than those of today, with
both wind waves and the 11-13 second ENE swell weakening
slightly. Following a cold fropa Wednesday or Wednesday night,
SCA conditions are expected starting Thursday with NE gusts up
to 25-30 kt.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides due to the full moon
on Monday will bring a risk for minor tidal flooding with each
high tide cycle across the beaches and along the Cape Fear River
near downtown Wilmington at least through the first half of the
upcoming week.
There is a high risk of rip currents for Georgetown and New
Hanover County beaches today and likely again for Monday, as E
wind waves of 7 seconds and ENE swell of 12-13 seconds make it
to shore and create 2-5 ft surf heights.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MAS/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion