Palm Bay West, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS62 KMLB 221753
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
153 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues early
  this week with long period swells from Hurricane Gabrielle.
- Increased shower and storm chances Today and Tuesday as deeper
  moisture arrives over central Florida.
- Above normal high temperatures for the interior through Friday
  reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Today...Surface high pressure near the Mid Atlc and northeast will
keep light onshore flow across east central FL today. A mid level
s/w trough across the n central Gulf will move slowly eastward as
deeper moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2 inches) from S FL begins to creep
northward toward central FL through late afternoon. Highest
afternoon coverage is expected along and south of a Melbourne to
Kissimmee line with lower coverage expected across northern Lake and
Volusia county where lower PWAT air will linger. Will have a tight
gradient in rain chances 20-30 percent north of Sanford to 40-50
percent central and 60-70 percent for Okeechobee and the Treasure
Coast. The main threats with storms this afternoon into early
evening will be strong wind gusts to 40 mph, occasional to frequent
lightning strikes and heavy downpours. With the deeper moisture
locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with
slow moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Highs
will reach the upper 80s coast to lower 90s from Orlando
westward.
A long period swell from distant TC Gabrielle has reached the
Florida east coast early this morning. This will keep a high risk of
life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Take this into
account if heading to the coast early this week, as entering the
water will be highly discouraged! The High Rip Current Risk will
continue into Tuesday as long period east swells will continue
the risk for strong rip currents.
Tonight...The mid level s/w will approach the NE Gulf overnight with
disturbances aloft and upper level W/SW flow bringing some debris
rain from w central fl storms back our way. Any pockets of
instability and impulses aloft may allow for some isolated
showers/storms into late evening and have expanded a low chance
for convection in agreement with 00Z href models. Activity should
tend to push toward the Atlc overnight but will continue a low
chance for a shower or storm near the Atlc coast. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland and upper 70s coast.
Tuesday...Deep moisture will continue across central FL on Tue with
PWATs range from 2.0 north to 2.1-2.3 south. Aloft, a mid level
trough across the ern Gulf should provide additional across the srn
peninsula and when combined with daytime heating should see
scattered showers and storms north to numerous showers/storms for
the srn interior Tue afternoon. A few stronger storms may develop
with lightning, gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall amounts to
1-3 inches the main convective hazards late in the afternoon and
early evening. The warmest high temps will continue from Orlando
westward in the lower 90s. A High Risk for rip currents will
continue at the Atlantic beaches.
Wed-Fri...Model guidance indicates some weak ridging aloft and some
lowering of the deeper moisture as we head past mid week, especially
for northern and coastal areas. This should allow for a decrease in
afternoon convective coverage but will still see scattered
afternoon showers and storms each day, most numerous across
southern interior sections.
A warming trend is also anticipated mid to late week, as more sun
and lesser overall cloud cover supports afternoon temperatures
mostly in the low 90s, but some mid 90s over the interior are
possible. Peak heat indices Wednesday-Friday will reach 98-103
degrees, so it is something to keep in mind for any outdoor work or
activities.
Friday Night-Monday...A longwave trough will move toward the
southeast states late this week with some divergence in model
solutions whether the trough will be quicker and more progressive or
slow down as a closed low cuts off across Southeast. The timing of
the frontal moisture could be as early as Friday night with the
more progressive solutions or arrive during the day on Saturday.
Expect a period of unsettled weather with higher shower/storm
chances for Saturday. The evolution of a closed low near the area
late this weekend should gradually lower rain chances by Sunday as
some drier air is wrapped in toward northern sections of the area
associated with the closed low. For rain chances...Have trended
toward a blend of the NBM and operational global and ensemble
models by late in the weekend with rain chances mainly forecast in
40-50 percent range at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure near the Mid Altc early this week and offshore the
Carolinas and Mid Atlc mid week will keep generally E-SE winds
across the waters through Thu. Swells from distant Hurricane
Gabrielle will continue into tonight and Tuesday and reach 6 ft
offshore the Volusia and Brevard coast this evening into Tue.
Additionally, longer periods of 11-12 sec with these swells will
lead to hazardous boating conditions at inlets during the outgoing
tide through early week. Swells will decrease to 3-5 ft Wed and 2-3
ft by Thu afternoon into Friday.
Moisture builds back northward across the area through early this
week, with coverage of showers and storms increasing, becoming
scattered to numerous across the waters. Deeper moisture then shifts
eastward into mid to late week with shower and storm coverage closer
to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Deeper moisture will continue to build northward across central FL
today. However, greatest moisture and highest potential for
showers and storms will be focused generally south of Orlando
through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, mainly
across the interior. Hi-res model guidance has trended toward
lower convective coverage near KMCO/KISM today, but have
maintained a brief window for tempo MVFR TSRA impacts at these
sites from 21-23Z as sea breeze moves through. Otherwise, have
VCSH at TAF sites north of Orlando and at KTIX/KMLB, with VCTS at
KVRB-KSUA from 18-21Z. Isolated onshore moving showers will be
possible overnight tonight along the coast, but for now left VCSH
out of the TAFs.
E/NE winds increase to 8-10 knots behind the inland moving sea
breeze today and then diminish becoming mostly light and variable
overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  89 /  10  40  10  40
MCO  75  92  75  93 /  10  60  10  60
MLB  76  88  76  89 /  30  60  20  50
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
LEE  74  92  74  93 /  10  50  10  50
SFB  75  91  75  92 /  10  60  10  50
ORL  76  92  76  92 /  10  60  10  60
FPR  73  90  74  90 /  30  60  20  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Volkmer
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion