Palestine, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS63 KILX 242314
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
614 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers can be expected near and south of I-72 through
  this evening. Most will be light, but an isolated thunderstorm
  is possible.
- A stretch of dry weather returns Thursday through at least early
  next week, with temperatures returning to above normal (highs
  reaching the 80s by the weekend).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A relatively stationary upper level low remains over the Great
Lakes, with a long wave trough extending southwestward through
central IL into the southern Plains. One last shortwave disturbance,
currently centered over western AR is poised to eject through
southern IL late this afternoon and evening. Until then, enough
weak lift and diurnal heating should allow scattered light showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to continue mainly from near
I-72 southward ahead of the upper level trough axis. The shortwave
could enhance shower activity mainly south of I-70. As the main
upper trough axis migrates slowly southeastward, shower activity
should taper off from northwest to southeast tonight, ending
across the area by Thursday morning.
A long wave high pressure ridge, currently extending from the
southwest U.S. to the northern Plains, will edge eastward the next
few days, becoming the dominant influence on central IL`s weather.
As this ridge amplifies and shifts over central IL late this weekend
into early next week, a warming trend will continue to trend
temperatures upward. Highs will remain in the upper 70s Thursday
following the recent frontal passage and in the northwest flow
behind the outgoing trough axis, then trend upward to around 80
Friday, and eventually mid to upper 80s by Sunday into the middle of
next week. Lows look to be primarily in the 50s for the upcoming
week, with the coldest morning being lower 50s Friday morning,
gradually increasing to upper 50s by early next week.
37
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Narrow SW-NE band of showers has been settling southward, with
just some lingering VCSH at KCMI/KDEC for another hour or two.
Main aviation concern will be toward sunrise, with models
suggesting lower ceilings spreading into eastern Illinois from the
southwest. 18z run of the HREF indicates 50-70% chances of
ceilings below 3,000 feet at KCMI by about 10z Thursday, and
around 40-50% below 2,000 feet. Some potential for it reaching
KDEC/KBMI as well, though there is more uncertainty as to overall
sky cover that far west. Any lower ceilings should improve by
about 15z.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion