Pahokee, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

255
FXUS62 KMFL 221745
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
145 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The east coast sea breeze slowly continues to push towards the
interior and convection has begun firing along the sea breeze as
it moves westward. As the Gulf breeze develops and pushes towards
the interior, this will create a foci for convective development
as the afternoon progresses over the interior. Deep layer moisture
remains in place over South Florida as the latest ACARS sounding
data shows PWAT values hovering around 1.88 inches. The abundance
of moisture combined with the slow storm motion could provide the
potential for some localized flooding especially over the low
lying and poor drainage areas this afternoon into the early
evening hours. As diurnal heating continues, this will destabilize
the atmosphere further and it will provide the opportunity for a
few of the thunderstorms to become strong as guidance suggests
CAPE values could rise between 4000 and 4500 J/kg over the
interior sections. With DCAPE values hovering between 800 and 900
J/kg, the stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds
generally between 45 and 55 mph this afternoon.
Heading into the evening hours, with the loss of diurnal heating,
convection will gradually diminish after sunset across most
areas and will give way to mainly dry conditions overnight. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the
coastal areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Deep layer moisture is slowly returning to South Florida as PWATs
rise above 2 inches again per the 00Z MFL sounding. As high pressure
pushes off the US east coast, surface flow will become more easterly
today and tomorrow. With the return of deeper moisture, increased
cloud cover will once again plague South Florida much of the
early week period. Coastal showers and storms may once again begin
early this morning, developing into more robust thunderstorm
complexes during the early afternoon and evening. With prevailing
easterly flow, highest rain chances are expected to migrate
westward through the day with best chances across east coast areas
during the early afternoon hours and early evening for portions
of Southwest Florida.
Deep moisture hangs around heading into Tuesday, and cloud cover is
expected to linger through most of the day. A few peeks of sun will
be possible during the morning hours, along with additional morning
coastal showers. Once again, thunderstorms will develop and migrate
inland through the day.
Localized flooding will be the primary concern through the period,
with the possibility that some areas may see repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall over short periods of time. Rounds of heavy
rainfall coupled with poor drainage, construction zones, and
blocked sewer drains, could lead to roadway flooding and drivers
should heed caution.
High temperatures will be on the cooler side due to increased cloud
cover with highs topping out in the upper 80s each day. Lows will
drop into the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure will maintain an onshore east-northeast flow during
the mid-week period. On Thursday and Friday, a very subtle boundary
draped across Central Florida could progress southward which
would kick the plume of deep layer moisture over the Southern
peninsula towards the South. On Thursday and Friday, modeled PWATs
drop into the 1.7-1.8 inch range which will subsequently drop
rain chances for the end of the week into the weekend into the
40-50% range. Despite slightly lower moisture, scattered showers
and storms will be expected each afternoon and evening with the
possibility of coastal showers across eastern areas during the
morning hours. With lower moisture, each day during the late week
period and upcoming weekend will begin with much more sun, and
cloud cover will increase into the afternoon hours and showers and
storms begin to develop. The obvious exception will be for
portions of the east coast that do end up receiving an isolated
morning shower.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and storms have developed along the east coast
sea breeze this afternoon and are currently pushing towards the
interior sections. Easterly winds will continue around 10 kts this
afternoon across the east coast terminals before becoming light
and variable this evening. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the
WSW as a Gulf breeze develops this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Showers and
storms are likely throughout the day across local waters, especially
over the Atlantic side. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will
be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  78  91 /  40  70  20  60
West Kendall     76  90  76  91 /  40  70  20  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  91 /  40  70  20  60
Homestead        76  89  77  90 /  50  70  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  78  90 /  50  70  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  78  90 /  50  70  20  50
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  50  70  20  60
West Palm Beach  76  90  77  90 /  40  70  20  50
Boca Raton       77  90  77  91 /  50  70  20  50
Naples           76  90  76  91 /  50  70  20  50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion