Orrick, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

892
FXUS63 KEAX 261135
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...12z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* No hazardous weather is expected over the next 7 days.
  - Above normal fall temps in the low to mid 80s
  - Dry conditions
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
To put it bluntly, there is not much sensible weather of note to
speak of over the next week or so across the area. At least when it
comes to impactful or inclement weather.
Early morning GOES satellite analysis (WV and nighttime
microphysics) show an expansive dry airmass with nary a cloud,
aside from some pockets of fog, from the Texas Gulf cost northward
through much of the Plains and western Great Lakes regions. Surface
analysis further reinforces the quiet conditions with a broad area
of surface high pressure influence from Texas up into and through
Missouri. Locally, this has yielded an efficient nocturnal cooling
setup with temperatures already at or just below originally forecast
lows, especially in rural/non-urban areas. Various satellite imagery
too are picking up on bits of typical river valley fog. And while
the airmass overall is quite dry, do not be surprised if you see
pockets of ground fog in/around low-lying and otherwise fog prone
areas to start the morning given the recent rains. Otherwise an
abundantly pleasant day on tap with highs expected into the low 80s
for much of the area, clear skies, and light winds.
The large scale pattern gradually shifts eastward the next day or
two, but tends to be quite slow in doing so with the nearly orphaned
shortwave trough to our E/SE and the developing cutoff low digging
into the SW CONUS yielding a messy blocking pattern look. This
slowly evolving to stalled pattern is further reinforced by late
weekend into next week as forecast tropical storm(s) are widely
depicted within synoptic deterministic and ensemble guidance to
influence GA/SC/NC coasts. This will tend to keep the ridging
influence overhead for much of, if not entirety, of the current
7- day forecast. This manifests itself in the forecast with
predominantly light surface winds, clear to mostly clear skies
(and by virtue, dry conditions), and temperatures in the low to
mid 80s (a handful to 10 degrees above normal this time of the
year).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions to prevail across the metro TAF sites,
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD, in conjunction with light, at times variable,
winds. KSTJ initially IFR due to Missouri River valley fog, but
will quickly go VFR this morning. It may once again dip down due
to fog, so have that scenario playing out in the TAF around 06z
later tonight. If there is a prevailing wind direction today, it
will be out of the SW to S.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion