Orovada, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

746
FXUS65 KLKN 221018
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
318 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
* Quiet weather today through Wednesday.
* Frost over eastern NV Tuesday morning as lows dip well into the
  30s.
* Precipitation chances increase late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
No updates are needed for the current forecast as it remains on
track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Northerly flow over the region Monday through Wednesday AM in the
eastern flank of a ridge will help dry the region out but also
create frost for portions of central, east-central, and
northeastern NV as overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s in
those locations.
As the ridge pushes east mid week background flow over the area
will shift to southerly in its western flank. Meanwhile another
low pressure system to the southwest will also migrate east and
provide some moisture and forcing over central NV to increase
precipitation chances mainly south of I-80. Beginning Thursday
evening PW values over Nye, southern Lander & Eureka, and White
Pine Counties will increase. CAPE values of near 200-300 J/kg
collocated with LI`s of -2 will initiate convective development.
Frontogenesis associated with the system just to the south will
also aid in convective efficiency over central NV. A similar setup
with better moisture on Friday which looks to be the wettest day
associated with this latest system as 0.1-0.2 rainfall
accumulations are forecast for portions of eastern Nye and White
Pine counties. Precipitation continues through Saturday though
moisture values begin to ebb with a dry day and northerly flow
forecast for next Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Hourly grids were altered for Sunday evening as NBM cleared
convection out of the area ridiculously too soon. Pops grids were
blended using RAP/GFS/Euro to create a more accurate Wx grid
depiction. Model diagnostics used current and previous 12-hr
observations to verify accuracy of models used.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. Winds will be
northerly this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry today with northerly winds of 5 to 15 mph and gusts of 15 to
25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will lower to around 15%
across Northern NV fire weather zones this afternoon, with 20 to
30% for most of Central NV. Dry conditions through Wednesday
afternoon. Increasing moisture and instability Wednesday night
into Thursday across FW zones 424 425 426 and 427 where scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected into Thursday evening.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion