Old Mobeetie, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

304
FXUS64 KAMA 011747
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the
  Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s
  to lower 90s.
- Confidence is low, but the potential for temperatures near or
  slightly below average along with rain chances may return to the
  Panhandles early to the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Model agreement continues to see the exit of the lee-side low out
of the Panhandles early this morning. This exit is expected to
drag a small surface boundary across the northeastern portions of
the Panhandle around sunrise, which may be enough to start a
couple of weak storms. However, the latest CAM analysis has been a
bit uncertain on the idea with most of them only giving chances
less than 10%. Regardless, the push off of the leeside low will
help keep winds on the lighter side for today as the building
ridge keeps the rest of the Panhandles dry through Thursday. As
for temperatures, look for the warming trend to keep present as
afternoon highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Model agreement continues to see the building of a ridge over the
Panhandles, which will look to keep the area relatively dry for
Friday and Saturday. Behind this system, however, models expect a
trough to slowly dig into Southern Nevada before pushing eastward
late Saturday into Sunday. Currently expectations have the trough
and its associated low taking a more northeasterly track that will
keep the Panhandles in a dry slot, which will keep chances of
showers and thunderstorms less than 20%. As we move into the new
week, model agreements do see another trough and upper-level low
build across the West Coast with an upper-level high holding
across the Southeastern Coast. This potential setup will give us
the chance to receive a little extra moisture from the gulf, which
will see chances of precipitation rise for Monday night to around
15 to 25%. By the mid-week model agreement does start to break
down as the ECMWF and GFS try to force a new trough out of Canada.
The present NBM is on board with this system making its way down
to the Panhandles with chances of precipitation currently 15 to
30% late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, these chances may
decrease if the system decided to stay further north. Regardless,
the presence of this system will see temperatures cool once again
as high in the 80s and 90s Sunday and Monday drop into the 70s by
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up over the TX and OK
panhandles. Warmer, capping air aloft should keep these from
growing into any showers or thunderstorms, so VFR conditions are
forecast to prevail through the afternoon and early evening. Skies
will clear out overnight with breezy conditions subsiding.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...99

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion