Oakhurst, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

541
FXUS64 KHGX 271736
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Dry air, plenty of sun, and near to slightly above average
  temperatures will reign through the weekend and deep into next
  week.
- Fair weather will prevail across the vast majority of the area,
  marred only by an isolated shower or storm over the coastal Gulf
  waters today.
- Use extra caution when using open flames or equipment that can
  cause sparks for the next several days due to very dry air each
  afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Dry air and high pressure are the main features of the week.
Relative humidity on Friday fell below 35 percent across virtually
all of Southeast Texas, and down to around 25 percent in the
driest spots in the area. With winds remaining mostly
northeasterly tomorrow, we should match, or at least come very
close to that again on Saturday afternoon. Very gradually, as high
pressure and a slack pressure gradient takes hold over the area,
we`ll see the diurnal seabreeze/landbreeze cycle take over. These
periods of light onshore flow will help filter in small amounts of
humidity. This will obviously be most noticeable at the coast, but
even there the increase in humidity will be modest. By Thursday,
my forecast min RH is still in the 30s across inland SE Texas, and
up to around 50 percent on the immediate coast.
Near critically low RH only increasing slightly through the week
could introduce a fire weather threat in the area, but you can be
buoyed by the fact that I am still writing about it here and not
broken out into its own fire weather section. The main mitigating
factor here will be winds - without much pressure gradient, winds
will be light, and largely mitigate a lot of the threat posed by
the very dry air. Additionally, TFS data shows fuel moisture (via
the ERC) largely in the 50th to 75th percentile. This indicates
fuels that are roughly typical for the time of year which wouldn`t
suppress wildland fires completely, but as described by state fire
behavior experts, indicates that any fires would show low
resistance to firefighting efforts. All in all, this describes an
environment that is not critical but does urge caution with flame
and sparking equipment, particularly if you are not an
experienced, professional burn practitioner.
Beyond talk of humidity, the dry air will also have contribute to
daily temperature trends, most excitingly at night! While the dry
air will heat effectively and allow temperatures to rise into the
upper 80s and even lower 90s at times, that will at least be
mitigated by the lack of oppressive humidity. Additionally, at
night, the drier air will allow for much more effective cooling at
night, particularly since we get to pair it with a mostly clear
sky and light winds. This should let all by the immediate coast
fall into the 60s for the next several nights, with cool spots way
up north even falling into the upper 50s the next couple of
nights!
With fair weather dominating, there is not a ton to say about
rain, but it won`t be *completely* absent from the forecast,
either. Rain chances will almost entirely be offshore, with a
slight chance of showers or a stray storm through the night and
Saturday - then returning from, say, Tuesday onward once that
summer-ish diurnal land-sea cycle takes over. As we get to the
very end of next week and the end of this forecast period, enough
moisture will have built up that some of those isolated cells
could show up over coastal areas on the seabreeze Friday afternoon
or so. But beyond that, it should be mostly to fully sunny day
after day for the vast majority of our area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds this
afternoon generally from the NE, becoming light and variable this
evening and tonight. There could be a period of E or even ESE
winds near the coast late afternoon early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Northeast flow is expected to largely prevail through the weekend,
albeit with stretches where winds begum a little more easterly.
These winds should be 15 knots or less throughout. Look for an
isolated shower or even a thunderstorm, primarily over the
offshore waters, overnight into tomorrow but otherwise fair
weather. Winds do pick up some Sunday as a disorganized area of
low pressure makes its way into South Texas. Expect winds over the
Gulf around 15 knots with 2-4 foot seas, and if any stronger
winds materialize, small craft will have a need to exercise
caution. Next week, the daily landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will
become dominant as seas also diminish to less than 2 feet.
At the shore, above average high tides are expected to continue,
reaching to around the highest astronomical tide level (2.5 ft
above MLLW at the Galveston Bay entrance). The probability for
strong rip currents is very low, but a low chance for strong rip
currents does not necessarily mean an absence of rip currents
entirely, as the Galveston Beach Patrol has been reporting
moderate rip current strength of late.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  87  75  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion