Norton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

013
FXUS63 KGLD 012310
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thursday morning may see some fog over the northeastern
  portions of the area.
- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the
  start of the weekend with Friday looking to be the warmest day
  at this time with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to return Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday. Potential for elevated fire
  weather conditions Friday and Saturday. Some blowing dust may
  also occur Saturday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph; perhaps
  locally higher.
- Cooler closer to normal temperatures Sunday through the middle
  portion of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A slow moving surface low remains in place across southern portions
of the CWA leading to the continued redevelopment of showers and
storms across Logan, Gove, Graham, Sheridan and Yuma counties.
Hourly updated guidance such as the RAP13 shows mid level moisture
continuing through the remainder of the afternoon so have added in
slight chance of showers and storms continuing across the east and
the northern portions of the area. Have kept rainfall chances on the
lower side through the afternoon due to the subtleness of the
forcing. Other than the longer than anticipated rain chances
due to the low moving low the remainder of the forecast
continues to remain on track with high temperatures in the upper
70s to low 80s and winds remaining lighter with a an expected
gradual shift to the north as the low continues to move. Fog
still remains on the table overnight and into Thursday morning.
The signal overall is not as strong as it was 24 hours ago so
confidence has fallen a bit in it. At this time the continued
favored area for fog looks to be across Red Willow, Decatur,
Norton and Graham counties starting around 12Z Thursday.
Additional patchy radiational fog may develop a bit further
west due to low dew point depressions, clear skies and light
winds so will continue to leave in the coverage of fog that the
previous shift had as it makes meteorological sense to occur.
Thursday, ridging continues to amplify across the area leading to
even warmer temperatures than today. As winds return to a more
southerly component. High temperatures for the day are
currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the forecast
area. As of now not seeing any clear cut signals for
precipitation leading to high confidence in these temperatures
occurring. As the afternoon continues to go on effects from a
surface trough over the western CONUS will slowly start to be
more noticed as our 850mb wind field begins increasing across
eastern Colorado which will result in an increase of surface
winds. Currently anticipating wind gusts of 20-30 mph starting
around mid afternoon or so; the further east you go winds are
forecast to be lighter as a surface high moves across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Friday, the forecast begins to take a turn and become more active as
a western CONUS trough begins to deepen. Winds during the day Friday
will become breezy to gusty with wind gusts of 25-35 mph currently
forecast. The breeziest winds continue to favor eastern portions of
the area where guidance has continuously shown a stronger 700mb
jet streak where we should have no problem mixing into. A dry
line is also forecast to set up around the Highway 27 corridor
to the state line where humidity values are forecast to fall
into the mid to upper teens along high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Still continuing to watch for the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions based on humidity
and wind gusts possibly approaching 35 mph at times. Further
east fire weather isn`t as much of a concern as humidity values
are currently forecast to be above 25%. This may change if the
if the dryline can push further to the east however.
Saturday, has potential to be the most impactful as the large trough
continues to push towards the area. An additional surface trough and
low is forecast to also develop across or near the area. As all of
this occurs our wind fields will also continue to strengthen.
Confidence in wind gusts above 40 mph is high. If the strength
of the jets continues as is currently progged in guidance the
potential for wind gusts around 50 mph will continue to increase
and also wouldn`t entirely be surprised if some isolated gusts
to 60 mph can occur as well. The other potential hazard for the
day may be blowing dust. With the strength of the wind field
and drying soil conditions which is already being seen via
NASASPORT 0-10cm soil moisture which is already dropping into
the low 20s to even locally upper teens in spots. The one aspect
that may lower to overall coverage of impacts if blowing dust
were to occur is that 2-2.5km lapse rates are fairly high which
would support dust being lofted further into the atmosphere
leading to more of a haze. With that being said still can`t rule
out some locations where visibility can significantly drop
especially near source regions. Elevated fire weather conditions
will still continue to be a concern but humidity is forecast to
be higher than Friday, so any fire weather concerns will come
from the magnitude of the wind itself.
The next part of the forecast is on a wind shift that is still
forecast to move through during the evening. Guidance including
ensembles have backed off cooler temperatures which can also be seen
in the NAEFS with a large spread of the 850mb temperatures; so am
perhaps thinking that it may be more of a prefrontal trough that
will cause this initial wind shift. It appears part of this is
due to the upper level trough ejecting to north quicker and
delaying the cold front a little bit. Showers and storms still
remain possible as well but the overall qpf outputs of ensemble
data has also trended down. Some severe storms are possible but
at this time am leaning towards damaging winds being the main
threat due weak CAPE around 500 j/kg but very steep lapse rates
in place along with even stronger winds of 50-60 knots in the
500mb flow which has the potential to be mixed down.
The main cold front is still forecast to move through during the day
on Sunday. Winds are still forecast to be a little breezy but as
windy as the previous days as we get more into the axis of the
trough. Depending on when the front moves through the area another
increase of winds may occur mainly with breezy sustained winds
around 20-25 mph. Near normal to perhaps slightly below normal
temperatures are then forecast to continue through the middle
portion of the week. Am continuing to see some signs of of
surface highs pushing into the area which if timed correctly
overnight would lead to optimal radiational cooling potential
with lower dew points which may result in some frost potential
towards the end of the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
For KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some
upstream showers may allow for high cloud cover generally above
7500ft to begin the period, but clear skies are otherwise
expected to prevail. Through about 15-17Z, winds are forecast to
vary between from the southeast and southwest, with speeds
generally less than 6 kts. Towards the end of the period
Thursday afternoon, winds should stabilize more from the
southeast with speeds increasing to around 12 kts.
For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, with a 20% chance for
fog to impact the terminal between 09-15Z. Some lower level
moisture has moved in from the wrap around side of the surface
low that was over the area today. If the forecast holds, winds
are forecast to vary, but also be from out of the west at times
tonight, advecting in some drier air near the surface. If the
more moist air does remain in place, then look out for fog,
including the possibility of dense fog. The chances for showers
have ended with drier air pushing in aloft. Going into the late
morning and afternoon hours, skies should clear underneath a
ridge with winds stabilizing from the southeast around 8-10 kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion