North Logan, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

268
FXUS65 KSLC 011008
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Drier conditions and gradual warming are expected
through Thursday. Winds will increase ahead of an advancing deep
system Friday. This system and an associated cold front will move
through Friday, bringing colder and more unsettled conditions into
the region through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Morning water vapor loop
still shows a deep and broad trough churning across much of the
North American Pacific coast, but locally the impulses responsible
for an unsettled period continue to depart. The most recent wave is
continuing to provide just enough lift to result in some isolated
showers across northern Utah, but should see this activity continue
to wane as we approach sunrise. Otherwise, much cooler tonight,
especially across northern Utah where many locations are around 10
to 20 degrees colder than at this time yesterday. Cooler
temperatures are noted elsewhere, albeit to generally lesser extents.
Moving into the day Wednesday the Pacific low will continue to
gradually deepen, allowing a mostly dry and mild deep southwesterly
flow to develop overhead locally. With minimal source of synoptic
lift, quieter and clearer conditions are expected. Temperatures will
also begin to rebound with afternoon highs pushing generally back
near to slightly above normal for early October.
With the Pacific low continuing to deepen Thursday but make little
to no inland penetration, the overall forecast pattern locally will
shift quite minimally. Precipitation chances will remain low across
the region, and temperatures will trend upwards several degrees for
afternoon highs at most locations.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...An active fall pattern remains
for the long term period. A PNW trough will bring a cold front along
with widespread precipitation for the northern half of Utah and SW
Wyoming on Friday and Saturday. A reinforcing shortwave on Sunday
could keep some showery activity around far northern Utah and SW
Wyoming before a drier airmass moves in early next week.
A splitting trough moving into the Great Basin on Friday will
initiate widespread precipitation along and behind a strong cold
front. Guidance is starting to come in line with the timing and
track of this trough. ~75% of guidance brings widespread stratiform
rain with embedded convection overnight Friday into Saturday. The
remaining 25% of guidance has a similar track, but the arrival time
is a bit earlier on Friday afternoon. Regardless, widespread
precipitation for the northern half of Utah looks likely along with
temperatures ~10 degrees below normal. Southern Utah looks to remain
mostly dry with this storm track, but a cool airmass will still
filter into this portion of the area.
Moisture will be plentiful, and QPF amounts look to be higher than
this previous storm. There is a high amount of variability in the
totals, however, with the 25th percentile across the north ~0.3" and
the 75th percentile approaching 1.00" with a mean ~0.5". H7
temperatures with this airmass bottom out on Saturday evening ~-2C
which would be cold enough to bring snow levels down to ~8500 feet.
A couple of inches of snow currently forecast for areas generally
>10,000 feet. Coincident with the coldest air along, winds aloft
will be more westerly which could lead to some lake enhanced snow
across the high terrain east of the GSL. Current lake effect
guidance is up to 45% for the mountains near Ogden.
A secondary trough quickly dives south out of interior Canada by
Sunday morning. This will help to phase the prior trough back into
the mean flow and bring some enhanced lift to help keep some showery
activity going across portions of far northern Utah and SW Wyoming.
More stable conditions along with near normal temperatures arrive by
early next week as the trough pushes northeast.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Dry conditions with clearing skies will continue
with light southerly winds transitioning to a light northerly lake
breeze during the mid afternoon.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Drying conditions with
clearing skies will continue along with light and diurnally driven
winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A trailing impulse will finish brushing
by the UT/NV border early Tuesday morning. Otherwise a broad
system will gradually deepen along the Pacific coast, enhancing
deep southwesterly flow locally overhead. This will result in
drier air returning to the region along with more stable
conditions and warming temperatures through Thursday.
The aforementioned deepening system will start to move inland by
Friday. Ahead of an associated cold front, anticipate south to
southwesterly winds increasing with widespread gusts in the 25 to
35 mph range. Models suggest the front will start progressing
through Utah later in the day Friday, accompanied by
precipitation. Unsettled conditions will be maintained as the core
of the broader system settles in through the weekend, and much
colder temperatures will move in (7 to 15 degrees below normal
Saturday). With snow levels dropping as low as 9000 ft Saturday,
some light high elevation snow accumulations will be possible
across northern Utah.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion