Nocatee, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS62 KTBW 051821
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
221 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Strong easterly flow is sticking around but the big difference today
is an increase in moisture. PW from this morning sounding is right
at 2 inches compared to the 1.5 we saw yesterday. This will result
in more shower chances today but they will be quick moving from east
to west. We will see very similiar conditions for Monday and Tuesday
with quick moving showers moving east to west.
Starting on Wednesday the easterly winds will remain but much drier
air will move overhead. This will result in limit shower chances for
Wednesday and Thursday.
By Friday moisture will increase ahead of a front that will push
through early Saturday. This will result in scattered showers and
storms returning to the forecast. Once the front pushes through
early Saturday we will see much drier and slightly cooler air. Highs
on Saturday look to stay in the mid 80`s with little to no showers
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
More moisture in the mid to upper levels will allow for better
storm chances today with scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and evening. Our northern site will also see gusty
easterly winds this afternoon with gust up to 25 knots possible.
VFR conditions expected through the period outside of
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Unfortunately winds will remain around Small Craft Advisory
conditions for Sunday and through our work week of the east. The
only exception to that will be our southern waters which should see
winds more around 10 to 15 knots. With the strong easterly winds our
best chance to see showers each day will be in the late evening and
early overnight hours as showers push off the west coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Strong easterly winds will remain over the area for Sunday
and through next week with gust around 15 to 20 knots. Extra
moisture today through Tuesday will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area before we start to dry out again Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  88 /  10  40  10  40
FMY  75  89  75  87 /  30  50  10  50
GIF  75  87  75  87 /  20  60  20  50
SRQ  74  89  74  87 /  20  40  10  40
BKV  73  88  73  88 /  10  50  10  40
SPG  76  86  76  86 /  20  40  10  40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion