Nipinnawassee, California Weather Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS66 KHNX 302302
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
402 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooler air moving in Friday will cause an 80 to 90 percent
probability for below freezing temperatures at Tioga Pass.
Additionally, here is a 50 to 60 percent probability for a trace
or more of snowfall through 5 PM Friday.
2. Moisture from a system over the Pacific Northwest has a 10
to 20 percent probability to cause measureable rainfall for
portions of the central Sierra Nevada through 5 PM this
afternoon.
3. There are additional probabilities Thursday into Friday as
the system tracks into the western US. In 12 hours ending 5 PM
Friday, there is a 30 to 40 percent probability for one-tenth of
an inch for the Sierra Nevada north of Kern County.
4. There is a 70 to 80 percent probability for 80 degrees in the
San Joaquin Valley and Kern Desert through Thursday before
falling to 20 to 30 percent on Friday. A warming trend will
bring increasing probabilities for the weekend.
5.There is a 60 to 70 percent probability for maximum wind
gusts greater than 45 mph for the town of Mojave and California
Routes 14 and 58 on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system currently located off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest region is causing below-average temperatures
to propagate over central California today as cooler air arrives
from the eastern Pacific. Valley and Desert temperatures have a
70 to 80 percent probabiltiy to exceed 80 degrees each afternoon
through Thursday, but only a 10 to 20 percent to exceed 85
degrees. The consistent temepratures are the result of more
zonal flow on the southside of the system as the pressure
gradient flattens out. Lingering moisture tracking around the
system has a 10 to 20 percent probability to account for
measurable rainfall greater than 0.01 inches through 5 PM this
afternoon in the central Sierra Nevada. However, probabilities
quickly fall off into this evening and through Wdensday as the
zonal pattern emerges.
Into Thursday, ensemble forecasts indicate the aforementioned
system will deepen to the south, causing a robust trough to
develop along the Pacific coast. A narrow band of moisture will
track along the northern edge of our area, with ensemble
guidance output having a 30 to 40 percent probability for
measurable rainfall along the central Sierra over 24 hours
ending 11 PM Thursday. As Friday approaches, model clusters
indicate the trough will track into the western US, with the
most favorable scenario placing the trough well into the Great
Basin before the weekend; however, there is a percentage of
ensemble members showing a slower approach, placing the center
of the trough further west along the coast. Regardless, the
system appears to be the next chance for precipiation for our
region, with a 40 to 50 percent probability for measurable
rainfall greater than 0.01 inches over 24 hours ending 5 PM
Friday for the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County.
Additionally, there is a 30 to 40 percent probability for one-
tenth of an inch for the Sierra Nevada north of Kern County.
However, with the system being cooler, there is a scenario
showing potential for snowfall in the higher elevations of the
region, including Tioga Pass. Through 5 PM Friday, ensemble
uidance suggests a 50 to 60 percent probability for a trace of
snowfall at Tioga Pass, with greater probabilities higher in
elevation.
Mid-to-upper level winds assocaited with the incoming trough
will descend along the Kern Mountains, resulting in a 60 to 70
percent probaibility for maximum wind gusts greater than 45 mph
for the town of Mojave and California routes 14 and 58 on
Friday.
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.AVIATION...
Low level clouds along the Sierra foothills creating areas of
MVFR conditions through 06Z Wednesday. Additional clouds
developing along the southern Kern Mountains creating MVFR
conditions 12Z to 18Z Wednesdy. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through 12Z Wednesday.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
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NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion