Nesmith, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS62 KILM 271035
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will bring good chances of showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
should develop into Tropical Storm Imelda near The Bahamas this
weekend and could bring impacts to the Carolinas as early as
Monday. Increasing winds and rough seas will develop offshore,
but inland impacts including heavy rain and wind are less
certain. Drier and cooler weather should develop late next week
as Canadian high pressure builds in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A front will stall in the area with multiple pulses of PVA aloft
supporting rain chances through the day with drier conditions
expected late tonight at least for inland. The majority of the
area should see up to half an inch of rainfall primarily before
midnight, with isolated spots possibly getting 1-2" depending on
where storms set up, more likely for the coastal counties.
Light winds with the expected rainfall could yield fog formation
towards the end of the period, the extent of which will depend
on how rain starts to clear up, but for now best chances inland
where it should become mostly dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast for Sunday continues to trend drier compared to today,
as the upr-level trough over the eastern CONUS weakens, the
main moisture axis shifts offshore, and the sfc frontal boundary
becomes more diffuse. That said, rain is still likely over
eastern areas closer to the front, with moderate to heavy rain
possible in training cells. Any direct impacts from future
Tropical Storm Imelda will hold off until Monday at the
earliest. With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, temps will run a
bit below normal...highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is still anticipated to become a
tropical depression then Tropical Storm Imelda by early next
week. It has been slow to develop a true center, complicating
the forecast into next week. Much of the 00Z guidance has
continued a slower trend to its northward progression as well,
allowing more time for Hurricane Humberto out to the east to
catch up and influence Imelda`s track - mainly helping it to
stay offshore without a SE U.S. landfall. Again, this is just a
trend to the guidance and there is still a chance of a direct
landfall or even a stalling off the Carolina coast leading to
very high rain amounts, so continue to monitor the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
A drying trend ensues following Imelda, as strong sfc high
pressure building north of the area leads to breezy NE flow,
while an upr-level closed low could still be positioned over
the SE states, so at least climo PoPs remain in the forecast
each day. Also expect cooler temps, with highs only in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gradually improving of CIGs is expected through the day but MVFR
should linger through the afternoon. Restrictions may lift come
the evening with low confidence on fog tonight, best chances for
inland terminals. Showers and storms will be possible through
the day with heavy rainfall briefly dropping VSBYs to MVFR/IFR
if they move over terminals. Restrictions may return tonight
with the threat of fog, best chances for inland terminals at
this time.
Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms will create periods
of MVFR to local IFR conditions in ceilings and low visibility
throughout the weekend. There is a low, but growing potential
that a tropical cyclone may impact the eastern Carolinas
starting Monday with strong wind, low ceilings, and low
visibility in heavy rain possible. Impacts may linger through
the end of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions with seas 2-3 ft and
winds AOB 10 kts out of the S-SW. Offshore showers and storms
could cause drops in visibility with locally higher winds, but
severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Sunday through Wednesday...Future Tropical Storm Imelda likely
to track northwards off the FL coast this period, with guidance
varying from a direct landfall over the Carolinas, to staying
well out to sea. Regardless of the exact track, expect
increasing winds and moreso seas due to strong easterly
swell...SCA conditions should commence by early Monday with seas
up to ~10 ft Monday night. The wind forecast is trickier as it
obviously depends on the exact track of Imelda, but marine
interests should plan for the potential for dangerous wind and
wave conditions along the Carolina coast staring early next
week. Following Imelda, strong Canadian high pressure building
in from the north and associated CAA will lead to strong SCA to
possible gale winds out of the NE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/LEW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion