Naples, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

760
FXUS66 KOTX 030804
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
104 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy northwest winds in the Cascade foothills Friday night
  into Saturday
- Gusty north winds developing Saturday night into Sunday in
  central Washington.
- Dry Sunday onward with chilly overnight lows falling into the
  upper 20s and 30s.
- Pattern becomes highly uncertain by Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Breezy west
winds Friday shifting north Friday night into Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: Shower activity has decreased as expected
overnight as the mid level diffluent flow decreases. The low
over the San Francisco Bay area will continue to dive southeast
into Friday morning, bringing mild and dry conditions with highs
in the mid 60s to low 70s. A weak low will pass through southern
British Columbia tomorrow bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the Cascade gaps in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will
be gusty in the Cascades as well as the flow pattern/vertical
profiles look favorable for some mountain wave development. The
HRRR simulated IR brightness temperature product shows the
development of mountain wave clouds around 4 to 5 PM Friday
which is when winds are expected to greatly increase. The
greatest chances (70-95%) for wind gusts over 30 mph from 4 PM
Fri- 4 AM Sat are on the higher benches of the Okanogan Valley
and Chelan County, Waterville Plateau, and parts of western
Grant County. A Red Flag warning has been issued for the
Cascades east slopes foothills in eastern Chelan County given
the model trends for gusty winds this afternoon and tonight. Of
most concern is the south end of the Lower Sugarloaf Fire where
models show an 80% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph
Friday evening. The weak front passage will occur Friday night
and into Saturday morning bringing a drier air mass to the
region, increasing the risk of frost development in sheltered
valleys Saturday night, especially in northeast Washington and
north Idaho. As northerly flow continues, high resolution models
are hinting at northerly wind gusts around 35-45 mph developing
around Omak, Moses Lake, and Ephrata overnight Saturday.
Sunday through Friday: Mild temperatures and dry conditions
continue through Sunday lasting through at least Tuesday as
upper level ridging previously off the coast moves inland.
Weaker overnight winds will favor frost development in sheltered
valleys. Models substantially diverge on a potential shortwave
trough that will develop in the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday. Some
solutions deepen the low quickly and bring it south bringing a
ridge to the area. Other solutions bring it through southern
British Columbia, which would bring cooler and unsettled
conditions. It is essentially a tossup what will happen at this
point beyond Tuesday. The GFS high temperature for next Friday
is 79 while the Euro has 67. The details of Wednesday and beyond
will slowly be ironed out over the next few days. /Butler
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS:Some clearing of clouds is expected through the night
which may lead to redevelopment of fog for locations that have
seen recent rain, but confidence in the fog forecast is low so
did not include fog in the TAFs.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the afternoon and
evening. Low confidence for fog to develop at GEG, SFF, COE,
PUW, LWS overnight. Fog development will depend largely on how
much clearing of clouds occurs.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        67  45  65  40  62  36 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  46  64  41  61  38 /   0  10  10  20  10   0
Pullman        64  42  61  36  61  34 /  10  10  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       69  49  67  45  65  41 /  10  10  20  20  10   0
Colville       68  32  65  29  62  27 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Sandpoint      65  46  61  41  58  36 /   0  20  30  40  20   0
Kellogg        65  46  61  42  57  38 /  10  20  50  50  30   0
Moses Lake     71  45  70  43  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  48  67  42  62  42 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           70  45  67  41  64  41 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Saturday
     for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705).
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion